The week-long unconditional truce in Yemen that began at midnight on Friday aims to allow the delivery of desperately needed food, medicine and fuel to Yemenis suffering from three months of deadly and destructive warfare and punitive Saudi-led airstrikes on their country.
“We have assurances from all the parties – we are quite optimistic [the pause] will be respected,” said UN negotiator Ould Cheikh Ahmad. He said the parties had agreed “assistance can reach all parts of Yemen”. If the truce holds, it will be the second since the Saudis launched their air campaign in March.
Yemen's president Abed-Rabbo Mansour Hadi initially demanded the Shia Houthi rebels release prisoners and withdraw fighters from the Aden, Taiz and Shabwa provinces in the south and Mareb in the centre of Yemen. This would be followed by Houthi evacuations of other areas they hold.
Overall agreement
Hadi’s demands amount to total Houthi capitulation and cannot be expected to be met outside an overall agreement to end the conflict. However, in a gesture of good will, the Houthis have released a politician allied to Hadi and allowed 50 lorries carrying aid into Aden.
The Sunni Saudis have premised their air campaign on the accusation that the Zaydi Shia Houthis are Shia Iran’s proxies although regional experts argue Iran’s material assistance to the rebels has been minimal. The Houthis, who belong to a different branch of Shia Islam than the Iranians, say they are fighting a corrupt, noninclusive government installed by the Saudis and the West. Shias comprise about 45 per cent of Yemeni’s population.
Blockade
Relief agencies contend the fighting among Yemeni factions and the blockade imposed by the Saudi-dominated alliance of wealthy Gulf states have left 80 per cent of the 25 million citizens of Yemen, the poorest Arab country, in urgent need of aid; 15 million need food aid if famine is to be avoided.
More than 3,000 Yemenis, 1,528 of them civilians, have been killed and a million have fled their homes since the US-backed Saudi offensive began in March. Both sides are to blame for the disaster but the Saudi blockade, imposed to interdict weapons, has cut the flow of food, 90 per cent of which is normally imported, and fuel. A bag of flour and a cylinder of cooking gas have quadrupled in price, making them unaffordable for most Yemenis. Dengue fever is spreading.
Saudi Arabia promised $245 million (€220 million) in aid for Yemen but the money has not been transmitted to the UN humanitarian agency for its $1.6 billion operation, which has been sustained by other donors.
If the ceasefire takes hold, it is due to end on July 17th, with the close of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and a return to military stalemate. The Saudis control Yemen’s airspace and ports but have to rely for ground forces on pro-Hadi militias and elements in the Yemeni army, which has split with elite units joining the Houthis.
Evacuate
Since
Pakistan
and other Saudi allies have refused to send troops and Saudi Arabia is unwilling to commit its own to the battle, Riyadh has no means of forcing the Houthis to evacuate territory they hold or allow Hadi’s return. Saudi military positions, towns and villages near the Yemeni border have come under Houthi attack.
The stalemate has enabled al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to capture Mukalla, Yemen’s fifth largest city, and expand its reach, while Islamic State has also begun to take root due to the security vacuum. These two groups have killed and wounded scores with suicide bombings targeting Shia mosques, inflaming sectarian tensions.