After the worst two weeks of his presidency, Barack Obama's authority is diminished at home and abroad, his domestic agenda at the mercy of a hostile Congress and his foreign policy hostage to Russia's mercurial President Vladimir Putin. Mr Obama's political debacle over Syria was almost entirely of his own making, starting with his ill-advised declaration last year that the use of chemical weapons would represent a "red line" for Washington. Following allegations of a major chemical weapons attack by the regime of Bashar al-Assad near Damascus last month, the US president appeared set to make good on his implicit threat of military action against Syria until his plans were upset by Britain's unexpected parliamentary vote against such action.
In a move that bewildered even his closest advisors, Mr Obama put his plan of attack on hold, declaring that he would seek authorisation from Congress before taking action. As support on Capitol Hill melted away in the face of overwhelming popular opposition to another US military adventure in the Middle East, he faced certain defeat until Moscow seized on an apparently stray remark by secretary of state John Kerry suggesting Assad could escape the torrent of Tomahawk missiles if he put his chemical weapons arsenal under international control. In an extraordinary televised address on Tuesday, Mr Obama shifted gear yet again, restating the case for attacking Syria but calling on Congress to delay a vote on the issue while the Russian proposal is explored.
Negotiations to secure Syria's chemical weapons stockpile are at an early stage but if they are successful, they could enhance the prospects of broader, US/Russia-sponsored peace talks in Geneva between elements of Syria's opposition and parts of the Assad regime. Despite Mr Putin's triumphalism and Mr Obama's embarrassment, some geopolitical fundamentals remain unchanged, with the US still the world's dominant political, economic and military power and Russia a declining spectre of empire. The US president's incompetence over Syria has, however, damaged his credibility abroad, notably with America's allies, some of whom, including Britain's David Cameron, have wasted political capital in his support.
The damage at home is, if anything, greater still as Mr Obama faces threats from Congress to shut down the government rather than approve a new federal budget, to default on the country’s debt and to block the implementation of his most important legislative achievement, the reform of America’s healthcare system. Second-term presidents traditionally enjoy a window of about eighteen months before their lame-duck period begins and their authority dwindles as Washington becomes preoccupied with potential successors. Mr Obama’s misadventures over Syria may have ensured that his twilight will come much earlier.