The decision of King Salman of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf leaders not to attend President Barack Obama's summit of US and Arab leaders outside Washington is seen as sending a signal of displeasure at the American government's proposed nuclear agreement with Iran.
The talks at the Camp David retreat tomorrow are aimed at offering the Gulf states reassurances of US support as American negotiators seek to conclude a landmark deal with Iran, which Arab countries see as a growing adversary in the region through proxy wars in Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
The White House said on Monday that King Salman called Mr Obama to "express his regret at not being able to travel to Washington this week". As recently as last Friday, the Obama administration had been preparing for King Salman's attendance.
Ceasefire
The official reason for the monarch’s decision not to travel is that it coincides with a five-day ceasefire in neighbouring Yemen where a Saudi-led coalition is fighting the Iran-backed Shia Houthi rebels.
Both the US and the Saudis sought to play down any suggestion that the king’s last-minute cancellation was a rebuke to Obama.
The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are being represented at the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council but only the monarchs of Kuwait and Qatar are attending.
The others are sending subordinates in a clear sign of tensions among allies uneasy with a deal that would leave Iran with a capacity to generate nuclear power, but not nuclear weapons.
Despite the absence of some Arab leaders, Obama must reassure America’s partners in the Persian Gulf that his proposed deal with Iran, a key priority on his second-term foreign policy agenda, is designed to prevent conflict in the region and not intended to jeopardise their security requirements.
He must encourage greater co-ordination between the six nations in line with his policy of limited and highly qualified engagement and combined local, rather than American, boots on the ground.
Sanctions
The Sunni-led Saudi government sees the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran, a Shia state, in the nuclear deal as an economic strengthening of a rival and a threat to regional stability.
On another front, the US president must seek continued support from the Saudis and other Gulf states for the US-supported assaults on Islamic State (IS) to attempt to recover large parts of Iraq and Syria lost to the radical group. He must also manage Saudi pressure to oust President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, a close ally of Tehran.
Against the backdrop of America's energy boom, the US is no longer as dependent on the region for oil but still has to rely on the Saudis to oversee supply and maintain the low price of oil to keep pressure on Russia's oil-reliant economy in the deadlock over Ukraine.
Although Obama cleared his travel schedule in India in January to travel to Riyadh to pay his respects after the death of King Abdullah, he has had an uneasy relationship with the Saudis.
They have been unhappy with him since his last-minute decision to cancel airstrikes against Assad’s forces in September 2013 after a chemical weapons attack. Since late March Riyadh’s attacks on Yemen, held up by Obama last year as an example of an effective US counterterrorism strategy, are aimed at curbing Iran’s influence and a signal that the Saudis expect greater engagement from Washington.
There is a delicate balance to be struck in the region ahead of a June 30th deadline for the final nuclear agreement with Iran.
