The one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is prompting hawkish rhetoric from parties to the war. On Tuesday, Russia president Vladimir Putin delivered a belligerent speech in the Kremlin that reiterated the complaints he uses to justify Russia’s attack. Responsibility for the war, he said, lies with western elites and the regime in Kyiv. A few hours later, in Warsaw, US president Joe Biden reiterated his storyline about the war as autocracy testing the resolve of democracy. Contrary to Mr Putin’s expectations, democracies stood up and rallied to Ukraine and the cause of freedom. Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, for his part, repeatedly calls for more weapons so Ukrainians can drive Russia out of Ukraine.
Wars are built around grandiloquent justifications and seductive storylines. They are, as one writer noted, a force that gives us meaning. Fundamental questions are laid bare when armies clash and people kill for causes they believe are just. The enduring problem is that war parties live in different worlds of meaning, though the basic plot of the story – fighting empire – is the same.
Wars also have materialities where the costs of seductive storylines are exposed. These materialities often generate their own lexicon of rebuke. Take the phrase “meat grinder”. This dark phrase is how Russians and Ukrainians refer to the relentless trench warfare in the Donbas. A global empire of logistics makes it possible for the warring parties to exchange thousands of artillery shells and bullets each day. Factories from Alabama to Pyongyang are churning out the weapons required for war machines to pulverise each other.
[ Ukraine one year on: ‘Why should I leave my home, my world, my country?’Opens in new window ]
On both sides, the war’s human costs have become further justification for its continuation.
The Pentagon recently estimated that 200,000 Russians soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, an extraordinarily high number. There is no equivalent estimate of Ukraine’s losses, not because they are not enormous, but because releasing this data is demoralising. On both sides, the war’s human costs have become further justification for its continuation.
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Over the last year the waves of destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, cities, and people is a further materiality imposed by Russia’s war machine on ordinary Ukrainians. Grain exports were initially targeted too and remain restricted. Food insecurities across the globe ratcheted up.
Millions, as we all know, were forced to flee. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) there are more than 8 million Ukrainians refugees and more than 6 million internally displaced people. Poland hosts more than a million and a half people while Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands also host large numbers. Ireland met the moment with admirable generosity and moral clarity. ‘I stand with Ukraine’ is a simple but powerful expression of solidarity with the war’s victims. The sentiment needs to endure because, unfortunately, the war is deepening.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be a quick and limited war. It has turned into a quagmire for the Kremlin. The West, from the outset, required a “goldilocks” approach to the war. This combined a commitment to directly help Ukraine not lose the war while simultaneously not becoming directly involved in the war. But this “not-too-cold” and “not-too-hot” strategy was pressured by war events. Images of Russian war crimes and Ukrainian bravery made it difficult to say no to Mr Zelenskiy’s appeals for more and more powerful weapons.
An escalatory spiral has taken hold. The West supplies the Ukrainian military with advanced high-precision artillery, sophisticated air defence systems and has committed itself to supply formidable battle tanks. One consequence of these high technology systems is that the war is enmeshed with Nato logistical, training, and targeting systems. It is partially planned in Washington DC, trained for across Europe, and targeted through Nato satellites and bases.
The problem with any escalatory spiral is that it is difficult to stop. So many red lines are being crossed that the war could easily metastasise beyond Ukraine and, should Russia be facing a humiliating defeat, into nuclear weapons use. The Doomsday Clock, a nuclear risk assessment by leading world scientists, stands at 90 seconds to midnight – the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.
The grinding materialities of war tend to puncture its grandiloquent meanings over time
The war has been a big setback for climate action. Hydrocarbon wealth made it possible in the first place and shadow its every aspect. Russia last year earned record revenues from fossil fuel exports though these were insufficient to cover its war costs. As consumers struggled with soaring bills, the war generated record profits for energy companies. The five largest western oil and gas companies alone made a combined $200 billion (€1.88 billion) in profits in 2022. Europe’s search for non-Russian natural gas and oil sources boosted production levels worldwide. The war has also legitimised new LNG infrastructures and contracts worldwide, locking in decades of future extractions and emissions.
How future generations will assess the war, of course, depends on how it ends. Outcomes as different as Mr Putin on trial in The Hague, which should happen, or a nuclear war triggered by a fight for Crimea, which could happen, are possible. The grinding materialities of war tend to puncture its grandiloquent meanings over time. Let us hope this happens sooner rather than later, and negotiations start to end this horror show. An ugly peace is better than endless war.
Gerard Toal is a Professor at Virginia Tech in the Washington DC area and author of the forthcoming book Oceans Rise Empires Fall: Why Geopolitics Hastens Climate Catastrophe