At an end-of-term windbagging session with a senior political figure at the heart of government, we were musing about the political prospects for the remainder of the year, and beyond to the next general election.
Scenarios and personalities, political dynamics and trends were all dissected at great and tedious length. Assertions were made with increasing boldness. And then my interlocutor, drawing on the political experience that includes a financial crash and an economic collapse, a pandemic and a European war, observed: but who knows what could have happened by this time next year?
And he’s right, of course. Making predictions is an increasingly perilous business. But we can, I think, say two things with some confidence. The first is that Irish economic strength is likely to continue. Sure, the Department of Finance has nightmares about a possible decline in corporation tax receipts, but as long as unsustainable spending commitments are not built up, that need not be economically or politically ruinous.
What will these changes to weather patterns mean in Ireland? It’s impossible to say with precision. But it is certain that the changes will not leave Ireland untouched
The underlying strength of the Irish economy, and the consequent health of the public finances, is likely – not certain, but likely – to continue.
How a hotter world is affecting Ireland in five graphics
Cop29 failure unacceptable, even if climate slips from political priorities, warns Eamon Ryan
Torrential rain expected in Malaga and Tarragona as Spain shuts schools and evacuates residents
Cop29 report indicates carbon emissions from fossil fuels set to reach record high in 2024
This gives Ireland the means of dealing with something that will definitely be here in a year’s time: the consequences of climate change. This “climate adaptation” is distinct from action to reduce Ireland’s carbon emissions. Rather, it means dealing with the changes in weather patterns that scientists say are now inevitable – baked in – in the coming years because of global heating and changes to the world’s climate. In other words, it means getting ready for weather that is more extreme – hotter, wetter, wilder.
In recent weeks, we’ve been getting an inkling of what it’s likely to mean for summers on the Continent, with temperatures soaring into the 40s across the Mediterranean. This is not a matter of having to put on more sun cream and stay in the shade for a few hours. Last year’s heatwaves killed more than 61,000 people in Europe, scientists say.
What will these changes to weather patterns mean in Ireland? It’s impossible to say with precision. But it is certain that the changes will not leave Ireland untouched. We know that the general shape will be temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns, more violent storms and sea-level increases.
According to analysis carried out for the Government by climate experts, the effects in Ireland are likely to include (brace yourself): river and coastal flooding; water shortages in summer; new pests and diseases; poorer water quality and supply; changes in distribution and phenology (the timing of life cycle events) of plant and animal species on land and in the oceans; flooding leading to disruption of transport services and gradual deterioration of infrastructure; increased water demand as a result of the increased frequency of heatwaves leading to increased strain on water transmission and distribution networks, as well as on supply; more waterborne disease (for example, e.coli) from contamination of drinking water as a result of overland flows of pollutants; enhanced environmental conditions for bacterial growth, and viral survival with potential increase in food-borne disease; increases in the intensity of windstorms leading to damage to overhead power lines; degradation of communications infrastructure (for example, street cabinets); the arrival of invasive species more suited to changed climate conditions, with negative impacts on farming and fisheries; increased levels of run-off and potential water quality issues with implications for slurry storage and land-spreading; increased frequency of wildfires damaging woodlands; and harmful algal blooms leading to restrictions on shellfish harvesting with potential for economic losses.
This list, though long, is nothing like exhaustive. You get the picture.
We have tended to be poor at long-term planning. But this is no longer the long term: these things are coming. We can see them ahead
The good news is that many of these inevitable changes and dangers can be prepared for and their damage mitigated. But we need to get on with it, and that is a job for politicians and the people who work for them. The Government’s 2022 Adaptation Scorecard assessments – an exercise in measuring progress – found “limited evidence on how adaptation considerations have permeated decision-making or informed credible policy decisions”. This is less a must-do-better report, than a get-off-your-backsides one.
The allocations of finite resources to climate adaptation projects are political decisions, but they are also social and national necessities. Unmanaged climate changes have the potential to be highly politically disruptive. Who do you think people will look to if their homes are washed away, or their businesses ruined, or farms destroyed, or they can’t drink the water, if not the government? We have tended to be poor at long-term planning. But this is no longer the long term: these things are coming. We can see them ahead.
If the Government does not make greater progress in preparing for the entirely predictable effects of climate change, it will not just be blamed politically by voters, it will deserve to be. It won’t be good enough for Ministers to say: “That’s Uisce Éireann’s job”. It’s their job to make sure Uisce Éireann and local authorities and other State agencies are actually doing this stuff. I have my doubts that they all are.
The necessity to act extends beyond things such as flood management and water infrastructure. The changing climate is likely to mean greater movement northwards of people from the worst affected areas. That won’t just be holidaymakers from Spain and Italy (though it will certainly mean that); it may also be refugees from Africa and Asia. Already, resistance to migration is turning Europe to the right. Ireland needs a sustainable migration policy that commands broad public support. So does the EU. Better to figure out what that is before the pressure really arrives. On climate change and its consequences, this is a time for clear thinking and brave decisions.