For those with doubts about Cop28′s historic decision to signal the end of the world’s fossil fuel era, a sequence during its dying seconds is telling.
Exhausted negotiators gathered for what was expected to be a long final plenary with the usual twists before, hopefully, the famous gavel would go down. Instead, it soon became obvious a tight deal had already been struck behind closed doors.
Climate talks leader in Dubai, Sultan Al Jaber, brought proceedings to a rapid close. The whole room rose to give him – and themselves – a standing ovation, apart from the minister from Saudi Arabia, who remained seated, stony-faced.
According to climate policy specialist Michael Jacobs, a Cop veteran, “it was perhaps the surest indication of how the agreement should be judged”.
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It commits countries to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. It is the first time in almost 30 years fossil fuels have been forced into the decision text.
During the previous 36 hours an ominous air sat over the venue, Expo City, amid growing concerns a fudge was coming after the hosts initial proposal for a decision text was dismissed as being hopelessly weak – an options list guaranteed to fail to in keeping the world to within a 1.5-degree temperature rise.
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Most countries had earlier coalesced around a “phase-out” demand, which was strongly echoed by climate activists and aid agencies, who underlined it had to be “fair, fast and full”. But that was then excised from that draft, suggesting usual suspects had already got a grip on proceedings.
The breakthrough emerged from a group determined to push for more ambition. The “High Ambition Coalition” included EU countries (with Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan as lead negotiator to the fore attempting to secure supporting climate finance) and small island states. Critically, some of the world largest oil-producing states rowed in behind the coalition’s text changes.
In their ranks was the US, Canada, the UK, Australia and Japan. The coalition fed text changes into the Cop28 presidency during the final hours and pushed them in side meetings with parties. US climate envoy John Kerry and China’s lead negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, acted as a diplomatic catalyst for Cop chemistry to work.
It was a remarkable turn of events for Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber, after he was widely condemned for ill-advised comments in an exchange with chairwoman of the Elders Mary Robinson
As “phase out” was not acceptable to one side and “phase down” was equally unacceptable to the other, it came down to finding another verb. “Transition away” proved acceptable to all sides. “Linguistic style is not a Cop concern,” Jacobs noted afterwards.
It was a remarkable turn of events for Al Jaber, after he was widely condemned for ill-advised comments in an exchange with chairwoman of the Elders Mary Robinson, suggesting science did not indicate phase-out would be necessary to keep global warming to within a 1.5 degree rise.
Talks had become deadlocked on fossil fuels, yet 193 countries agreed to their timed wind down by finish. Reference to fossil fuels never featured in a Cop agreement going back three decades as petrostates, invariably led by Saudi Arabia, relentlessly fought to have the single greatest cause of the accelerating climate crisis excised from decisions.
That this was achieved at a Cop staged in a vastly wealthy oil-producing state, with a talks facilitator who is the chief executive of UAE’s state oil company, Adnoc, was incredible. His view of the result: “For the first time, the outcome recognises the need to transition away from fossil fuels ... the era of fossil fuels must end, and it must end with justice and equity.”
Bolstering this is evidence the world, almost in unison, is changing its ability to respond to a crisis that scared the Earth this year and will get worse, and is shepherding in a renewables era; the single most effective measure to decarbonise the world.
Sustained progress can be traced to “the Bridgetown initiative”, the brainchild of Mia Mottley, prime minister of Barbados, a leader among “the SIDS” (small island developing states). It aims to stop poorer countries from spiralling into debt after climate disasters. At its core is an overhaul of global finance architecture to enable developed countries to channel funds to developing countries, helping them transition to clean energy and become climate resilient.
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This has been endorsed by a global financial summit in Paris and the outcome of first African Climate Summit in Nairobi this year. Rich G20 and G7 countries have recognised finally their responsibilities too – and Cop28 gives it all further momentum.
In paying tribute to its allies including “civil society, youth and elders”, the High Ambition Coalition noted: “As always the true test is what happens out of these rooms. We must drastically reduce emissions and scale up adaptation this decade. The end of the fossil fuel era is inevitable, but it has to happen faster. No one can be left behind. The lives of so many depend on it.”
The outcome is imperfect. There are a litany of loopholes; glaring weaknesses on adaptation to help make vulnerable countries resilient and deplorably low support funds. Many are profoundly concerned big oil sees carbon capture technologies as its lifeline, when prolonging dependence on oil, gas and coal is a death sentence for people and planet. The evidence suggests it is ineffective in reducing all emissions, besides being hugely expensive.
Unfortunately too, the science will say even more ambition and speed is needed. Any tardiness will blow 1.5 degrees out of the water.
Yet the world has de facto phase-out of fossil fuels thanks to Cop28, that is deliverable with unprecedented urgency by all parties to the Paris Agreement. After all, it is what they have promised.