There are striking parallels between the present crisis in Gaza and Bosnia in the 1990s. A common feature has been the deliberate displacement of populations, one which raises profound concerns under international law.
In March 1995, a directive issued by Radovan Karadźić, the president of the Republika Srpska, ordered the Bosnian Serb army to “create an unbearable situation of total insecurity with no hope of further survival or life” in Srebrenica, Bosnia. Over the course of four months, the inhabitants were deprived of basic necessities through the deliberate blocking of humanitarian aid convoys.
A military assault by Bosnian Serb forces in July 1995, during which homes and villages were destroyed, caused thousands of Bosnian Muslim civilians to flee Srebrenica. Many sought refuge in a United Nations peacekeepers’ compound in Potočari. Around 30,000 Bosnian Muslims were later forcibly removed from Potočari by forces under the command of General Ratko Mladić.
Both Karadźić and Mladić were eventually convicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and given lengthy prison sentences for their roles in the “ethnic cleansing” in Bosnia, among other atrocities.
Bosnian Serb forces had created a coercive environment in Srebrenica “in which the Bosnian Muslims had no other viable alternative but to leave the enclave in order to stay alive”. The forced removal of civilians from Potočari was “not justified under international law”, the tribunal held.
The United Nations did not prevent these crimes, although the Security Council had been unanimous in its condemnation of serious violations of international law. It demanded the cessation of such conduct and unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid. During the Balkan crisis, the Security Council imposed sanctions on relevant parties and created the international tribunal with a view to deterrence and accountability.
The contrast with the response of the Security Council to the situation in Gaza could not be starker. Despite the efforts of secretary general António Guterres and a majority of member states, the Security Council has not been able to adopt a resolution calling for a ceasefire. The United States has voted against.
The United States veto, combined with its military, financial and political support for Israel, effectively gives a green light to the continued military assault on Gaza which has already killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and displaced 1.9 million from their homes.
The mass killing of civilians and the taking of hostages on October 7th by Hamas and others does not excuse Israeli violations of international law, just as attacks by Bosnian Muslim forces on Bosnian Serb villages did not justify the actions of the Bosnian Serb army in Srebrenica and Potočari in 1995.
Following the October 7th attacks, the Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant announced “a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed”.
Despite some humanitarian aid having been allowed to enter since then, there remains a widespread shortage of food, water, fuel and other essentials. Starvation and disease is rife. According to the World Health Organisation director general, “Gaza’s health system is on its knees and collapsing”.
Israeli forces have destroyed over 65,000 housing units in Gaza, as well as swathes of farmland and hundreds of public buildings, including schools, mosques and universities.
Tony Karon and Daniel Levy wrote in The Nation that this conduct “suggests an intention to make the territory uninhabitable for the 2.2 million Palestinians who live there – and to push for expulsion via a militarily engineered humanitarian catastrophe”.
United Nations experts and Palestinian human rights organisations have been warning of the risks of “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza. Such fears are based not only on what is happening on the ground, but also on various Israeli proposals in circulation, as well as the words of senior politicians and others.
“We are now rolling out the Gaza Nakba”, is how one Israeli minister put it, while another called for “the voluntary resettlement of Palestinians in Gaza, for humanitarian reasons, outside of the Strip”. National security minister Ben Gvir views the war as an “opportunity to concentrate on encouraging the migration of the residents of Gaza” and re-establishing Israeli settlements.
International law as applicable in Gaza is unambiguous on this issue. The Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 prohibits “individual or mass forcible transfers”, as well as deportations from occupied territory to the territory of the Occupying Power or any other country “regardless of their motive”.
Deportations or forcible transfers of populations have been prosecuted as international crimes since Nuremberg. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for president Vladimir Putin concerns the forced transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia. In the context of the deportation of Rohingyas from Myanmar to Bangladesh, the Court has emphasised that a humanitarian crisis created by unlawful activity cannot serve to legitimise displacement of a population.
The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over Gaza and an active investigation is currently underway. This has not prevented international crimes from taking place, as arrest warrants have yet to be issued. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been concerned enough, however, to denounce the investigation as “pure anti-semitism”.
The United States acting unilaterally or through the United Nations has the power to prevent further ethnic cleansing of Gaza. The United States, the European Commission and Egypt have publicly stated that they do not support the forcible relocation of the Palestinians outside of Gaza.
In Srebrenica, the forced removal of the Bosnian Muslim population happened alongside the execution of thousands of men and boys. Such atrocities were found to constitute genocide.
In Gaza, the risk of genocide grows more acute as Israel’s relentless assault continues and the population remains trapped – in addition to the many killed by Israel’s bombing campaign, reports are emerging of extra-judicial executions of Palestinians by Israeli forces.
Unlawfully displacing Palestinians from Gaza is no solution. Those with the power to do so must make every effort to end the conflict, prevent displacement and take the necessary measures to enforce observance of the cardinal rules of international law.
Professor Shane Darcy is the Deputy Director of the Irish Centre for Human Rights in the School of Law at University of Galway.