In late October 2016, just weeks before the Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump presidential election, a shocking Washington Post/ABC tracking poll showed Clinton 12 points ahead of Trump in the race for the White House, 51 per cent to 39 per cent.
The poll from such a reputable source so close to the election landed with an audible thud and supercharged the narrative that Clinton was cruising to victory. And it seemed to be the death blow for Trump, whose presidential campaign was mired in numerous difficulties and apparently running on empty. His candidacy was essentially written off by all the pundits in Washington. The polls could not lie or be wrong to that extent. Or could they?
Just a week or so later Trump won the actual election by 48.1 per cent to 46.2 per cent for arguably the biggest upset in American political history. Even though he lost the popular vote by 3 million votes he won handsomely in the electoral college.
It became clear the media had taken such errant polls as the Washington Post/ABC one as gospel, a fact that led to the groupthink that Clinton was home and hosed. But the underlying message from that debacle was that the polls were no longer to be relied upon as the sole arbiter of opinion. Significantly, that message has been missed again and again since.
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There is clear evidence that Biden’s popularity has on successive occasions been underestimated, and that he and his party have done much better in elections than the horse race pundits would have you believe.
The 2022 midterm elections is a key example. The contest appeared certain to produce a “red wave” in advance given the poor polling numbers of Biden. The prospects of Democrats picking up seats in the senate was considered faintly ridiculous. Not since John F Kennedy in the 1962 midterms had the party that held the White House increased its senate majority. Biden was no JFK, the argument ran.
Pollsters were wrong again. Democrats increased their numbers in the US senate. Despite Trump’s best efforts the election was a disaster for the GOP, losing senate seats and governor’s offices and barely hanging on for a razor-thin majority in the House. The red wave had become a departing sunset.
There is a pattern here, one that repeated itself in the off-year elections in 2023 where Biden again suffered from low poll numbers. According to polls analysis of 2023 results done by 538.com, Democrats outpolled the “partisan lean” – the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall – by 10 per cent. Abortion rights and Biden’s leadership once again trumped the GOP.
Now as the Iowa Caucus kicks off the race for the White House 2024 the polls continue to show Biden underperforming and behind Trump by a few percentage points.
Trump has never been weaker, with 91 criminal indictments and a slew of legal and political troubles. He has also never been more dangerous, spouting the Nazi creed about “vermin” immigrants and the “poisoned blood” of foreigners. He has made clear his dictatorial intent. It is hard to see suburban women for one warming to his megalomaniac tendencies.
Many Democrats would have preferred a younger candidate to Biden, but in head to head private polls none of the young pretenders poll better than Biden does against Trump.
Trump was the opponent the Biden camp wanted. They know that hidden among the hurly-burly of daily headlines and insults is a harsh reality for Republicans: the GOP as we know it has ceased to exist. It is now a fully-owned subsidiary of Trump Inc with all the baggage that entails. In several states the party apparatus is in pure chaos.
Biden is also leading in fundraising. He raised $71 million to date for the election. Trump has raised $45 million for the same three month period ending on September 30th.
It is clear that the GOP has descended a long way from the party of Ronald Reagan, John McCain and Mitt Romney, stalwarts who sought solutions, not diatribes, on the immigration issue. They would never have marched in lockstep with defenders of fascism.
Democrats on the other hand have retained a sense of unity and purpose, thanks in large part to Biden who has consistently outfoxed the naysayers across the aisle and is likely to do so again in 2024.
Biden’s age is of course the big topic, but there is no evidence whatever that he cannot make it through a second term. Biden is 81, but has no major medical problems, doesn’t smoke or drink and exercises five times a week. As for his mental acuity, people can only point to the achievements of his first term, his record low unemployment numbers, his massive infrastructure funding, his successful battle to tame inflation as examples of why you should examine the record rather than whine about his age. This is a highly-skilled politician who can still bring his best pitch when needed.
There is one significant polling figure above all that counts: likability. Here is where the key to the election can be found. Right now 62 per cent of Americans say they actively dislike Trump for an entire plethora of reasons. Only 52 per cent of Americans say they dislike Biden just as much. In a race where many voters will be holding their nose as they insert their vote in the ballot box that is a key differentiation.
The polls, no doubt, will swing this way and that between now and November, but there is clear evidence that what Biden often quotes – ”compare me to my opponent, not the Almighty” – might well be the winning strategy this election year. Nothing less than the future of democracy in America will be depending on it.
Niall O’Dowd is founder of Irish America Magazine, IrishCentral.com and Irish Voice. He is a co-founder of the Irish American Democrats group and lives in New York