Sinn Féin says it will reflect on its election disappointment in the Republic. Any change it makes will inevitably have implications for Northern Ireland, as the party tries not to take different positions either side of the Border.
Change is potentially unsettling for Stormont, where Sinn Féin has recently embraced responsible government. In a striking illustration of how roles have reversed, the UUP health minister is threatening not to implement the budget, saying it requires unacceptable cuts. The Sinn Féin-controlled Department of Finance, which wrote the budget, is telling the UUP to stop grandstanding, respect collective responsibility and take the difficult decisions required.
Unionists were telling Sinn Féin the same thing a decade ago, when it blocked executive business for three years over welfare reforms. That blockade was partly aimed at voters in the Republic. The party did not want to be accused of cutting benefits in the north by southern electoral rivals.
Sinn Féin now leads the executive but its conversion to a responsible posture is about more than being in charge. It wants to use Stormont to show voters in the Republic it is no longer just a party of protest.
Some observers have characterised Sinn Féin’s election postmortem as an internal debate over whether it has moved too far to the left or not far enough. There was an earlier debate within the party over whether to be the next Fianna Fáil or the next Irish Labour, although it would prefer not to describe it in those terms. The case for a new Fianna Fáil won out and Stormont is to be a demonstration. Alas, it transpires nobody in the Republic cares about Stormont, or at least not enough to follow the details of republican repositioning. People did notice reports of the briefing Sinn Féin’s finance spokesman, Pearse Doherty, gave to Davy Stockbrokers, leading Davy to conclude a Sinn Féin government would be more like Tony Blair’s New Labour than Jeremy Corbyn’s old Labour. This is part of the responsible reinvention and it appears to have gone down badly with core southern supporters. The postmortem may well conclude Sinn Féin needs to stop aspiring to the broad, crowded centre ground and be a more traditional party of the left. That could be accompanied by a retreat from pragmatism at Stormont, back to protest politics.
In Northern Ireland, there has been a softening of republican rhetoric since Michelle O’Neill assumed the post she calls ‘First Minister for all’
Any such move to the left would primarily be about economics. On social issues, Sinn Féin may want to move to the right. Its mishandling of the March referendums and the hate crime bill suggests it has alienated much of its base over progressive causes. There would be no paradox in moving economically left and socially right: that is where the traditional working-class left lies, relative to Sinn Féin’s current position.
For Northern Ireland, the implications of a slightly more conservative Sinn Féin are intriguing rather than concerning. It would not cause any problem for unionists, not that they have trouble with it now – culture war arguments with republicans are very much in the DUP’s comfort zone. Alliance already claims to be more progressive than Sinn Féin on several issues and the SDLP is sounding out the same territory.
The concern is that Sinn Féin would be unable to pull off this multidimensional balancing act. The manoeuvre would be difficult enough were it not overwhelmed by the issue of immigration, where the party is under pressure to accommodate deeply clashing values of left and right. There will be a temptation to square the circle with belligerent republican and nationalist rhetoric – not ‘up the RA’, perhaps, but certainly more assertiveness on a united Ireland and less tolerance of British and unionist positions.
To its credit, Sinn Féin has not done this so far in response to immigration. In Northern Ireland, there has been a softening of republican rhetoric since Michelle O’Neill assumed the post she calls “First Minister for all”. But armed struggle romanticism remains very much Sinn Féin’s comfort zone and it does not take much of it to cause a Stormont crisis. The welfare reform row finally came to a head over an IRA memorial parade, causing the DUP to tear up a regeneration deal.
[ Newton Emerson: Some claims about the cost of a united Ireland don’t stack upOpens in new window ]
Receding prospects of a Sinn Féin-led government might be expected to calm unionist nerves. There was little sign of nervousness anyway. In theory, the future of the union is unaffected by whoever is in power in Dublin. In reality, many unionists are so aghast at Fine Gael’s conduct during the Brexit negotiations they wonder only half in jest if Sinn Féin could be much worse.
Asked about the Irish elections, DUP leader Gavin Robinson said “people wanted solutions rather than just anger.” That was a message aimed at unionist opponents but it has general application.
It would be in everyone’s interests, Sinn Féin included, if its new style at Stormont continues.