The Cabinet – and everyone else – skedaddled out the door this week as fast as they could as the August break beckoned after a long political term. But you don’t have to listen too hard to hear the drumbeats of war beating in the political jungle, signifying an approaching general election. Calm before the storm, and all that.
I don’t know a single person in a position of knowledge or influence who actually, genuinely believes that this Government will continue in office until next March. One person closely involved cautions that the Coalition must keep its options open in case some disaster should befall it in September/October. But, barring such an unforeseen calamity, this person expects a November election.
There were a few signs this week if you knew where to look for them. There has been a spurt of Fine Gael selection conventions – in the past fortnight, the party has held conventions and selected candidates in Cork South Central, Fingal East, Dublin Central, Wexford, Dublin South West, Wicklow-Wexford, Cork East, Galway West and Carlow-Kilkenny.
On Wednesday evening at a national executive meeting, Fianna Fáil appointed Noel Dempsey to head its election planning committee and junior minister James Browne to lead manifesto preparations. Conventions to follow. Lads are getting a move on.
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The question of RTÉ funding was settled (for now anyway) in a manner that caused the least political friction. There will be no new broadcasting charge and any crackdown on evasion will not happen until after another “working group” reports at some point in the future. The RTÉ slow-motion bailout continues, but despite some rather breathless commentary, this is not a bonanza for the station at all. Quite the contrary, actually. Very difficult times remain in store at the station. The hard rain is gonna continue to fall at Montrose. For the Coalition, though, a tricky situation has been cleared off the agenda. Next business, please.
Staying with media matters, and the Defamation Bill made a sudden appearance this week, published by Minister for Justice Helen McEntee (though most of the work was done by junior minister James Browne) on Thursday. The Bill has long been sought-after by newspapers and broadcasters, struggling against the strictures of the most draconian libel laws in Europe.
This week also highlighted Sinn Féin’s current difficulties when McDonald launched the party’s new policy on asylum and international protection
Commendable stuff from the Government indeed – but why now? My guess is that the Bill will be tabled for debate in the Oireachtas in October, which will enable the Government to draw attention to the large number of libel actions taken against media outlets by members of Sinn Féin. The Bill contains protections against the use of Slapps – strategic lawsuits against public participation – which are essentially cases taken by politicians or businesses to deter media outlets from scrutinising them. No doubt Government ministers and TDs will feel compelled to draw attention to the cases taken by Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald – including one against RTÉ – which have been characterised as “having the hallmark of Slapps”, though she fiercely denies that.
This week also highlighted Sinn Féin’s current difficulties when McDonald launched the party’s new policy on asylum and international protection. The policy will enable the party to support the general principles of asylum and uphold its left-wing, anti-racist identity – but also give cover to candidates to oppose any individual asylum centre on the grounds of lack of consultation or unsuitability. McDonald herself summarised the essence of the position: asylum centres should be put in wealthier areas, she said. It had the value of clarity, at least: Sinn Féin is trying to consolidate its support in its working class base.
Trouble is, I fear at least some of those votes are gone for good. Certainly that is the view of some of the party’s opponents, whose glee at Sinn Féin’s difficulties would be difficult to overstate. I wonder if they might have cause to temper their delight if chunks of Sinn Féin’s working class support migrates to a hard-right nationalist alternative.
The pressure on the party and its leader were evident in a tetchy interview that McDonald gave to Philip Boucher-Hayes on RTÉ on Wednesday about the party’s new asylum policy. She seemed rattled. And she has for some months now. Sinn Féin’s current political weakness is perhaps the chief argument for an autumn election.
The flip side of Sinn Féin’s weakness is the Government’s momentum since the local and European election. That is most evident in Simon Harris, haring around the country amid a blur of handshakes, selfies, TikToks and all the rest of it. By all accounts, he wowed them at the MacGill summer school last week.
At the risk of vibes-based analysis, that Fine Gael feel-good factor isn’t going to last forever. But it might last to November. Throw in the expectation in Government of a Trump victory on November 5th and the possibility of a “flight to safety” by Irish voters afterwards (two pollsters nodded vigorously when I put the hypothesis to them) and the case for an election in the following weeks becomes quite deafening.
After all the denials, that would require quite a pivot once the Budget is done. There is a nonchalance in some of the upper reaches of Government about the ease in which that pivot can be done – you just say, oh, the Government is effectively finished, so we’re holding the election a couple of months early. Broadly speaking, that is possible – but Ministers need to be careful in the vehemence with which they rule out an autumn election. People will not like it if they feel they have been lied to. Ultimately, though, the case for going early is simply too strong. Politicians don’t always act in their own interests. But they usually do. November 15th is my (current) bet.
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