The spats between the two big Coalition parties in the first week of the election campaign are threatening to undermine their core appeal to voters of offering continuing stability and economic prosperity in an increasingly unstable world. While there is naturally intense competition between them for seats, and the prize of being the biggest party in the next government, they seem to have lost sight of the fact that the biggest prize of all is to retain power.
The danger for both is that if the sniping at each other continues and gets out of control as the campaign wears on it could raise doubts in the minds of voters about their ability to work in harmony again. That could be fatal for the prospects of another term.
The Greens, who form the third leg of the Coalition stool, are also involved in the crossfire but they do need to differentiate themselves from the big parties of Government as it is an open secret that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would dearly like to dump them.
Whether the big parties will get their wish to be rid of the troublesome Greens will be one of the important features of the result. If they can’t achieve a majority between them, most Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs would prefer to rely on the Regional Independents rather than the Greens to form the next government.
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While some in the big parties have suggested keeping the door open to an arrangement with Labour, those with long memories recall that Labour tended to be a more difficult and truculent coalition partner than the Greens.
Of course some tension between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is inevitable. They are different parties representing traditions that have competed with each other since the founding of the State. However, the end of Civil War politics marked by their coalition in 2020 has changed the political dynamic in a fundamental way, and they both need to recognise that. Apart from winning seats, both parties faced the challenge of motivating their activists who have a long tradition of competing with each other – but there is a fine line between robust debate and vicious exchanges that could undermine public confidence in them, and hinder co-operation in a future coalition.
Past experience shows that regardless of the insults traded during a campaign, political opponents can come together if the numbers dictate. Fianna Fáil and the PDs went into coalition in 1989 against all prior expectations and Fianna Fáil and Labour stunned everybody by doing a deal in 1992. However, the collapse of those coalitions in acrimony contrasts with the harmony between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil over the past four years.
Much of the current jostling is about whether they will have roughly the same number of seats in the next Dáil or whether one party will have significantly more than the other. That will have implications for whether or not the Taoiseach’s office again rotates between the two. The polls in advance of the election suggested that Fine Gael was ahead of its partner, but the fact that half its TDs are not standing again is bound to have an impact on the outcome. It is also worth noting that the polls had Fianna Fáil trailing in the run up to the local and European elections but the parties ended up in a dead heat.
A relatively even division of seats between the two would probably be the best outcome in terms of stability for a future Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition. It would help settle the issue of who takes first turn as taoiseach, the division of cabinet posts and the kind of policies the government would pursue.
Probably the most surprising feature of the campaign is that Sinn Féin, which only 18 months ago was being widely touted as the inevitable victor now appears to have very little chance of making it into government. Unless something remarkable happens in the final two weeks of the campaign, Mary Lou McDonald will not be the first woman taoiseach after this election, as so many confidently forecast not so long ago.
Even if Sinn Féin improves considerably on its performance in June’s local and European elections, it will struggle to find coalition partners. While Sinn Féin’s official position is that it wants to lead a coalition of the left it is highly unlikely that the other left-wing parties will have enough seats to oblige, and in any case some of them have no interest in governing.
What Sinn Féin strategists were actually planning for 18 months ago was that as the largest party in the next Dáil it would be in a position to cajole or force Fianna Fáil into a coalition that would give McDonald the taoiseach’s office for at least half of a government term.
Micheál Martin has always ruled that out and did so again in emphatic terms at the beginning of this campaign. So even if Sinn Féin stages a significant recovery and manages and wins as many seats as Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael it has no obvious path to government.