With four days to go before polling day in the general election, Fine Gael needs to concentrate on the message that the party is fit and ready to continue in Government and that it has the insights needed to make progress on the issues of most concern to the population.
The next government is virtually certain to be a coalition: the likelihood is that no single party will win a majority of seats in the next Dáil. At this stage, it appears rather unlikely that even the two largest parties together will have a majority of seats. They will need another party or cohesive group to form a majority. In itself, this is neither a good nor a bad thing: it is something determined by the voters and that must be responded to by the political parties.
The number of likely coalitions is limited. Neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil is likely to form a partnership with Sinn Féin. As in 2020, Sinn Féin will probably be unable to assemble enough support among the disparate Left groups to form a majority, particularly since the Social Democrats seem to be allergic to Labour. It seems unlikely that the Green Party would back a Government formation effort led by Sinn Féin: it appears, unfortunately, that it may have alienated voters to the point where it is unlikely to play a part in Government formation after the election.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil functioned effectively in the outgoing tripartite Government with the Green Party: Fine Gael led the tripartite Rainbow Government with Labour and the Democratic Left from the end of 1994 to the middle of 1997. For its part, Fianna Fáil has previous experience of coalition with the Progressive Democrats and Labour. Coalition is part of the shared experience of Irish politics.
The conclusion is that the formation of a Government is more than likely to fall to Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil with support from another cohesive group. That being the case, Fine Gael should now concentrate on emphasising what it can bring to the next Government and how it would contribute to the formation of that Government.
A close reading of the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil election manifestos reveals a very substantial convergence in ambitions, intentions and strategies. There are tactical differences and differences in detail but these seem to be capable of resolution in a serious negotiation of a Programme for Government. Differences between these parties in their approaches to personal taxation are marginal in terms of their effects on overall fiscal outcomes.
Given the convergence between the main lines of their manifestos, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil should now stop squabbling and concentrate on their messages. The sniping between the two parties is now counterproductive and risks turning off voters. It simply gives other parties an opportunity to muddy the electoral waters to their advantage. Fianna Fáil’s tradition of inter-candidate constituency rows probably helped to increase individual candidate profiles in past elections but the game is different at national level and in the current context.
Fine Gael must now concentrate on getting the essence of its strategy across to voters. At this stage, nothing new should be added to what is in the election manifesto: additional bright ideas at this stage will only confuse the picture. In the brief period between now and polling day, the key elements of the wide range of policy ambitions need to be identified and clearly communicated. The detail is in the election manifesto but the communication to the general public must be punchy, simple and sympathetic to public concerns. The recent presidential election in the US showed the success of political messaging which reverberates at an emotional level. Effective communication does not have to be dishonest and exploitative in the way that Trumpism clearly is.
The Fine Gael election manifesto shows that the party has understood and responded to public frustration with delays in the delivery of major projects and services. Its proposal is for a new Department of Infrastructure, Climate and Transport. Fianna Fáil takes a different approach, but the objective is the same in each case: to break the Gordian knot of bureaucracy, process and indecision that has plagued major public investment projects for decades.
Fine Gael must demonstrate the connection between housing targets and initiatives in other policy areas that are essential to the objective of ensuring the construction of 300,000 homes by 2030. These areas include plans for the Land Development Agency, Local Authorities, training, apprenticeships, planning reform and streamlining the planning system. There is joined-up thinking behind the proposed numbers and that needs to be spelt out in a succinct and readily-accessible way.
The manifesto plans for investment in water and sanitation services need to be expressed in clear and concise terms. The message is that these plans too are essential to the achievement of house building targets and also to industrial development, regional development, climate policy and biodiversity.
Similarly, plans for the energy sector must be communicated in terms that recognise and convey their centrality to the delivery of housing, employment and climate policies. Accelerated development and future-proofing of the energy grid are key to the achievement of a very wide range of public policy ambitions.
The Fine Gael proposals on social protection are clearly a response to keenly-felt needs across many social groups. They are consistent with an EU-wide trend toward a greater government role in society. This trend is likely to gather more weight and momentum as we experience the effects of global warming and the possible geopolitical turbulence that Trumpism will bring in its wake. The important point to note is that the manifesto includes a serious analysis of the fiscal policy implications of the body of proposals while maintaining a capacity to build reserves against unpredictable headwinds.
Alan Dukes was leader of Fine Gael from 1987 to 1990. The Irish Times invited three former leaders of the current biggest parties to tell voters what differentiates their party in 2024.
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