Opinion

TikTok’s annus horribilis of 2024 creates problems for Ireland

European Commission plans to crack open tightly guarded black box of social media firm’s algorithmic operations

Romania's independent candidate Calin Georgescu won the first round of the annulled presidential elections. But intelligence reports suggested manipulation by Russia, with TikTok in the frame. Photograph: Robert Ghement/EPA
Romania's independent candidate Calin Georgescu won the first round of the annulled presidential elections. But intelligence reports suggested manipulation by Russia, with TikTok in the frame. Photograph: Robert Ghement/EPA
Liz Carolan
Tue Dec 17 2024 - 06:00

As Irish voters went to the polls a couple of weeks ago, an election on the other side of Europe was in crisis. The Romanian presidential election took place the weekend before the Republic’s general election and was marked by relatively obscure far-right candidate Calin Georgescu leapfrogging to the top of a crowded field in the final days of the campaign. Intelligence reports suggested interference and manipulation by Russia and fingers started pointing at TikTok.

According to intelligence agencies, TikTok had enabled a mass propaganda effort via paid influencers and clandestine political adverts. The Romanian constitutional court went on to annul the election result, but from TikTok’s point of view, an arguably more consequential edict came its way from Brussels.

The European Commission used its new powers under the Digital Services Act to compel the company to retain data related to the Romanian election and all other European elections happening from now until the snap German election in the new year. This retention order will allow the commission to request data later, should it launch an investigation. Yet the commission’s request didn’t stop at election content and adverts, or even about how it protects elections, it also asked the company to “preserve internal documents and information regarding the design and functioning of its recommender systems”. In including requests for data related to TikTok’s tightly guarded algorithm, the commission may be opening a door to a regulator finally getting under the hood of what makes the social media app so addictive.

Concerns about the impact of social media on young people have prompted the Australian government to ban social media platforms, including TikTok, for children and young teenagers, citing concerns over mental health and online safety

This is just one of the company’s many legal challenges which have mounted around the world this year. While Europe’s focus leans toward issues of democratic integrity and algorithmic transparency, other jurisdictions are targeting TikTok on grounds of national security, data privacy, and youth safety. Concerns about the impact of social media on young people have prompted the Australian government to ban social media platforms, including TikTok, for children and young teenagers, citing concerns over mental health and online safety. Although Australia’s actions target all social media platforms, TikTok’s popularity among younger users has made it a focus.

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But the pressures this company faces are most acute and urgent in the United States. Earlier this year the US Congress passed a Bill requiring the sale of the company’s US operation to a company with American ownership. If it fails to do so, it faces an outright ban in the country on January 19th. TikTok’s latest attempt to halt the Bill failed in court last Friday, leaving just the supreme court as its last chance for a reprieve.

American concerns centre on TikTok’s ownership by Chinese tech giant ByteDance and fears that the platform could be compelled to share user data with the Chinese government. There are also concerns that the app’s algorithm is shaping content consumption for its 150 million American users in ways that benefit the Chinese state.

The context of this scrutiny is significant, with the lines between different policy justifications for enforcement blurring

The stakes for TikTok in the US could not be higher, potentially excluding it from one of its largest markets. It is estimated that the company generated $16 billion (€15 billion) in revenue there alone last year.

The context of this scrutiny is significant, with the lines between different policy justifications for enforcement blurring. So far the US has framed its actions against the company as an issue of national security, one of the few policy areas to which the courts cede when considering speech rights. The US has mounting evidence of Chinese espionage targeting American citizens and institutions, which included the likely monitoring of president-elect Donald Trump’s private phone calls, and infiltration of entire telecommunications networks. However, the long-standing, and escalating, tensions over trade between the two countries are likely an additional factor.

Back in Europe, the Romanian TikTok interference case has landed just as the new commission leadership and agenda is taking shape. The way that it plays out will likely focus on concerns and enforcement about democratic integrity, something covered explicitly in the Digital Services Act. This will be compounded by Russia’s alleged role in the election interference, in the context of that country’s aggression on the European Union’s border. But economic competitiveness may also start to be a factor.

The Mario Draghi report is a 400-page vision for EU competitiveness, commissioned by the commission and published in September. It emphasises the need for economic and tech “sovereignty” within Europe, and to foster and retain corporate “unicorns” — companies that reach a valuation of over $1 billion — within the EU. This shift reflects growing frustration with the dominance of foreign tech giants — mostly American, but also Chinese — over Europe’s digital landscape. TikTok, a Chinese-owned social media platform with significant influence across Europe, sits squarely in the Draghi crosshairs.

It also leaves the commission open to accusations that it is using digital policy to further its regional economic and industrial interests

This broader focus provides a new context for the Romanian case. The commission’s request that TikTok preserves content related to its algorithms hints at a larger ambition to crack open the black box of that firm’s algorithmic operations.

At the same time, all of this raises questions about where the Romanian issue will end up. It is likely to be the first real test case for Europe’s regulatory ambitions, and by targeting TikTok’s algorithms, the EU may be taking a step toward a deeper understanding — and potentially stricter oversight — of the algorithmic systems that drive the platforms.

It also leaves the commission open to accusations that it is using digital policy to further its regional economic and industrial interests. This will likely leave this State in a tricky position. As Europe moves to strengthen intra-union industrial policy, the Republic will find itself under pressure from our US and global tech industry, just as we may face a squeeze on this investment from a new Trump administration. TikTok’s annus horribilis of 2024 could lay the foundations of a tense and fractured 2025 for the Republic.

Liz Carolan works on democracy and technology issues, and writes at TheBriefing.ie