“Sitting ducks” is a new term climate scientists are increasingly highlighting as Earth rushes headlong towards a two-degree world.
These are the places most vulnerable to extreme weather events being exacerbated by carbon emissions; the continuing unleashing of human-induced greenhouse gases – and not in the best interests of a stable climate.
Invariably, these are high-population cities. Scientists use the term to refer to areas with the climate and geographical conditions to be deemed highly vulnerable to global warming-related disasters.
Sitting-duck cities are informally classified on the basis “they’ve got lucky so far”. The Financial Times has identified big cities across the planet, the places yet to experience a Valencia moment (devastating flash floods) or a Los Angeles engulfment (wildfires raging through neighbourhoods).
The four extremes analysed were flooding, wildfires, rainfall and storm surge – that is, abnormal water-level rise generated by a storm over and above predicted tides. The so-called sitting ducks have been “lucky” to avoid a combination of conditions that will lead to the next disaster. The odds against them are worsening because of accelerating warming.
Although Irish cities are not deemed to be among the 24 highest-risk places – which include Athens, Cape Town and Buenos Aires – some of our cities at the mouth of estuaries are extremely vulnerable to a combination of flooding, rainfall and storm surge.
A highly co-ordinated response is needed to build resilience in adapting for inevitable climate impacts and to minimise risk from all three happening in quick succession or all at once – a key message from Ireland’s first national climate risk assessment conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Most of all, Ireland has got lucky on storm surge. Storm Éowyn, which struck in January, reveals the extent of the most recent near miss. The bottom line is: storm surges in the order of five metres are looming, and we should probably be planning for 10m in some of our most populous urban centres.
A research team at University of Galway School of Engineering showed Éowyn generated the highest storm surges ever recorded – more than 2.5m metres above the normal predicted tidal water level. At Galway Port, it peaked at 2.6m above mean sea level, the average height of the sea surface. The highest surge along the western coastline was recorded at Limerick Docks: 2.99m. Had these surges occurred a week earlier during a spring tide, Galway Port would have reached 4.96m and Limerick Docks 5.85m.
That indicates tens of thousands of people and properties narrowly escaped disaster in the form of inundation by little more than luck of timing when Éowyn hit the country. The storm’s track was equally fortunate, with record overland wind speeds concentrated on less populated areas of the northwest.
Climatologist Prof Peter Thorne of Maynooth University spends much of his time analysing risk as chairman of the Climate Change Advisory Council adaptation committee; whether it’s the remotest places such as the Aran Islands, areas that habitually flood (and cannot get reasonable insurance cover) or our sitting-duck cities.
When it comes to Ireland’s sitting ducks, he highlights places with river flows – Cork, Dublin and Galway. Cork is “very, very vulnerable”, while in the capital much of the risk is due to so much of the State’s critical infrastructure, as well as functionality of Ireland’s political and financial systems, being “within a few metres of the river Liffey”.
He worries about anywhere taking a long time to drain “so impact will be long-lived”, as opposed to “short flashy catchments” draining in a day or two – or within hours. That includes anywhere along the river Shannon. In Limerick, the EPA has estimated extreme floods “under a high-end scenario of sea-level rise” may increase up to 12.5-fold, amounting to more than €1 billion for a single event.
Physical risks have not changed, but our understanding of risk has. It is going up incrementally due to sea level rise, especially where it intersects with river flow and increased rainfall intensity. The more we push the climate system, the bigger the risk and it rises “very, very quickly”, becoming more erratic, says Thorne.
While much of the east coast is “incredibly vulnerable”, individual households and farmland are most threatened, with its rail links, ports and major roads at risk.
Thorne accepts a lot of work is being done on protections in urban areas, where poor design including hard-paved surfaces can aggravate flooding. Cork, for example, faces particular challenges because of its central island, though it has a developed a park that can become a lake if necessary – a measure that is standard in many French cities and towns due to flash-flood risk.
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But it’s particularly hard to deploy such adaptation measures in built-up, already congested areas, even if they are nature-based solutions rather than hard engineering. Invariably, installing them causes large disruption for business, tourism and the daily lives of commuters.
The data and more accurate computer modelling indicate, however, we have to get to grips with the wicked problem of climate adaptation. In some places, protection within a decade is required. The vulnerability of places such as Portrane in north Dublin and Greystones, Co Wicklow, for instance, stands out.
The World Meteorological Organisation says global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels between 2025 and 2029. Models have flagged the imminent possibility of a “two-degree year” (above pre-industrial times), which a few years ago would have been considered impossible within such a narrow time-frame.
This means there is a high probability temperatures and precipitation will exceed long-term averages in the next five years. Sitting-duck places – including Ireland’s equivalent – are in the firing line.
And yet a European Commission assessment of the Government’s national energy and climate plan, published on May 28th, highlights a disturbing lack of coherence on adaptation. While climate vulnerabilities are acknowledged, proposed adaptation actions are vague, unquantified “and poorly integrated into overall planning”.
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The shape of what is required is clear. The Climate Change Advisory Council has spelt out what needs to be done to support preparedness for extreme events in its annual review for 2025. The EPA assessment provides critical indication of what the climate risks are, when they are likely to arise and, most importantly, where. It’s now up to government departments, key sectors such as energy, transport and communications, and local authorities to better frame the response.
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They should do so mindful of a World Resources Institute report providing powerful evidence that bolstering funding for adaptation and resilience is not only urgent but also one of the smartest development investments available today.
