Hours before racist violence broke out in Ballymena on Monday night, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) had warned that the north Antrim town was on a knife-edge over immigration.
In a statement to the Assembly, North Antrim DUP representative Paul Frew reminded members he had told them weeks ago people in his constituency were “living in fear”. There had since been two serious sexual assaults on teenage girls, sending “shock waves through Ballymena and further afield”, he said, yet there was no sign of immigration-related problems being addressed by police, councils, Stormont or Westminster.
On the same day in Stormont, other DUP members made statements about immigration in general and its impact in their areas. The party has clearly decided to adopt a more hardline stance on the issue, with what now looks like appalling timing. On Tuesday, 17 Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) officers were injured during a second night of unrest.
The DUP cannot be held responsible for the violence, however, and will have been genuinely alarmed by it. A change in position it was pursuing with some caution will now be seen to require more caution, yet also to be more urgent. Whatever approach the DUP takes to that conundrum, it is set to become the first major party on the island of Ireland to diverge from the political consensus on immigration.
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The focus of the DUP’s Assembly statements on Monday was north Belfast, which has experienced visible demographic change in recent years, partly driven by a new British government policy of moving asylum seekers out of hotels into the community.
Phillip Brett, a DUP MLA for North Belfast, said the private rental market is “out of control” as a result, with his constituents being evicted as landlords take contracts with Mears, the company managing asylum accommodation. This was acknowledged by DUP communities minister Gordon Lyons, whose remit includes housing. He chided other Assembly members for pretending the problem does not exist. “The worst thing we can do is ignore it,” he warned.
The DUP promoted these statements on social media, where it was also promoting a campaign on Monday by its Belfast councillors to protect playgrounds from indecent behaviour. This follows a recent alleged incident in north Belfast, for which an asylum seeker has been charged.
All three main unionist parties are now tiny organisations, unable to project much presence on the ground, let alone exercise authority
On all of these concerns, the DUP is not leading its voters but desperately trying to keep up with them. Brexit has destroyed its reputation for competence and shattered the unionist bloc vote it once won by default. If it is seen to be failing its supporters on another issue they care about deeply, large numbers of them will simply abandon it.
The party is already a shadow of its former self. Frew may be personally popular in north Antrim but he is the DUP’s only remaining Assembly member in what was its electoral heartland. Ian Paisley sensationally lost the constituency’s Westminster seat to the TUV last year. Brexit also cost the DUP its Westminster seat in North Belfast, lost to Sinn Féin in 2019.
Before the disorder broke out on Monday night, an estimated 2,500 Ballymena residents had held a tense but peaceful protest in support of the assault victims. Unionist politicians were present but scarcely visible: the protest had been organised organically via social media. All three main unionist parties are now tiny organisations, unable to project much presence on the ground, let alone exercise authority. Posting Assembly statements online may look like a pathetic attempt to regain relevance. Nevertheless, breaking the consensus on immigration will have knock-on effects throughout northern politics, with a secondary impact on the south via Sinn Féin. The DUP wants to set itself apart from other parties on this issue, as Lyons’s chiding showed. It competes for votes with the TUV, UUP and Alliance; all three will have to decide whether and by how much to adjust their positions.
The DUP could struggle to maintain its own position. Most of its statements so far have been measured and responsible, and it is correct that problems are being foolishly ignored. However, the party leadership is generally more moderate than its members and many of its elected representatives. It could find it has unleashed sentiments that carry it swiftly to the right.
Nationalist parties must decide how to handle an emerging orange/green divide on immigration. Lauding nationalist tolerance over unionist intolerance is itself rather obviously divisive. The SDLP has little to lose by sticking to its principles but Sinn Féin is more exposed, as the immigration pressures it is wrestling with in the Republic are starting to affect its constituents north of the Border. Demographic change in north Belfast reached nationalist neighbourhoods first because they are closer to the city centre and have more suitable accommodation. Although this has gone remarkably smoothly, there have inevitably been some problems. Sinn Féin’s response to this will be greatly complicated by the DUP raising the same problems streets away.
Immigration and the asylum system are not devolved, so every party at Stormont can complain about it without accepting any blame. There is always the hope they can unite around that.
