For years some people argued that population growth was the cause of our environmental woes. Two hundred years ago, the world’s population was some 1 billion people. It doubled by 1925 in conjunction with a dramatic increase in the use of fossil fuel energy. It doubled again to reach 4 billion by 1975, also now driven by a large increase in agricultural productivity.
It doubled again in the last 50 years, to just over 8 billion, largely due to ongoing improvements in healthcare and life expectancy. However, in the last decade there has been a dramatic change in demography, which is about to have a profound impact on our economy and our society as well as how we see our relationship with the natural world.
Average birth rates across the world have decreased to the point where three quarters of all countries are now below the replacement fertility rate to maintain their population levels. It is remarkable how widespread and sudden the change has been. It is happening not only in wealthy countries but also in the largest emerging economies such as China and India as well as in many developing countries, which no one was expecting.
In fast growing population centres such as Mexico city, a woman of childbearing age will now have on average less than one child, when the replacement rate is slightly above two. Even in Africa, which is a slight exception to the global phenomenon of reducing family sizes, birth rates have dropped by some 30 per cent in the last 40 years.
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The widespread nature of the decline means that demographic experts are unclear as to why it is happening. In some developed countries the increasing difficulty in establishing a home or changing career patterns may be a factor, but that cannot be the cause everywhere, as other developing countries are seeing similar falls, while retaining their traditional rural populations and working conditions.
Some note a correlation with the widespread use of mobile phones but there is no data to show a direct causation. Most experts agree that the change is driven by human volition rather than any one economic or external political factor. It seems we are choosing to have fewer children for personal reasons, rather than being forced to do so by circumstances outside our control.
It is also uncertain what will happen next. In all likelihood, the global population will peak at about 10 billion before the end of this century and then steadily decline, despite further improvements in healthcare. The impact on how we care for each other with such changing family circumstances and an increasingly ageing population is something we will have to manage, with no historic precedent to guide our way.
There will likely be real impacts on migration and economic development in a world where youthful workers will be in short supply. Ireland has experience of what these fluctuations are like. Having been one of the few countries in the developed world that ended up with a declining population in the 20th century, we are now about to surpass the peak population we had before the famine.
One implication of the change in demographics is that it might lead to a rethink of how we meet the environmental challenge we face. In some quarters the destruction of our natural world was directly connected to the increase in global population, rather than to our development model. Such a Malthusian worldview was never as common in the environmental movement as those outside it would like to depict, but the narrative will have to change now in any case to reflect the new reality.
If one of the reasons why people are reluctant to have children is fear of the environmental consequences, then surely an alternative narrative might take hold? The next generation is going to have to overcome the environmental challenge we have caused for them. At least they should be able to do so seeing themselves now not as part of the problem but as the source of solutions in managing our fast changing world.
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Talking about birth rates, migration and population patterns is contentious. We need to start by having a respectful and rational debate, which accurately reflects what is happening in the world. The question of whether or not to have a child is the most personal decision. People need to be able to follow their own instinct rather than trying to live up to some other person’s political goal.
But in a world where the population is about to fall, it will be harder for anyone to argue that having that child is the reason for our difficulties. With a more sustainable development model, we have every chance of living as 10 billion people in a stable and secure way, in harmony with our natural world. Children should surely now be seen as the solution to our problems and not the cause.
