The evidence for the wider political significance of presidential elections is mixed.
It would be very hard, for example, to argue that Labour has garnered any political capital from the success of Michael D Higgins. His 14 years in office have coincided with some of the party’s most difficult years.
Go back to Labour’s earlier presidential success, however, and you see a different picture: Mary Robinson’s win in 1990 both signalled and contributed to a sort of vibe shift (sorry) that would carry the party to unprecedented electoral success and power.
Gay Mitchell sank without trace in 2011 but Fine Gael is still in government, nearly a decade and a half later. The popularity of Mary McAleese outlasted Fianna Fáil’s doomed dominance of politics in the Bertie Ahern era.
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So the best we can say when considering what the forthcoming presidential contest will mean for politics more broadly is: it depends.
Nonetheless, even at this early stage in the 2025 contest, it’s clear that whatever about the potential political benefits of the presidency for any of the parties, there are very substantial political dangers emerging for them too. In other words, this could be a minefield.
Let’s consider them in sequence.
The first candidate in the field was the standard bearer of the left, independent Catherine Connolly. She managed to put together a coalition of left-wing forces in Leinster House to back her – a tantalising prospect for those (and they are many) who dream of a broad left-wing coalition as an alternative to the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil axis. True, Sinn Féin hasn’t said yes. But it hasn’t said no, either.
There are signs, though, that the coalition may be fraying. Parts of “old” Labour return in spades Connolly’s visceral dislike of their party, as Fergus Finlay and Alan Kelly have made clear. And despite having the field more or less to herself in recent weeks, Connolly’s campaign – as Jack Horgan-Jones reports today – has struggled to stutter into life. An encounter with the media on Tuesday at Leinster House was comically badly managed. The sign of the half-arse looms into view.
A deeper problem – and here is the political peril for Labour – is that Connolly’s campaign straddles what has latterly been the great divide in the Irish left: between those who want to be in government and those who see their role as criticising and holding power to account from opposition. You can describe that in various ways: Alan Kelly this week drew the distinction between centre-left and far-left. But if Connolly’s campaign comes apart on those lines, there is a grave danger here for Ivana Bacik, around whose neck the Connolly campaign threatens to hang like a millstone.
There’s danger for Simon Harris, too. The Fine Gael leader could do with a boost and winning the presidency for the first time would bolster morale, as well as restore the party’s faith in his political and campaigning abilities, following a battering during last year’s difficult election campaign.
Fine Gael has moved seamlessly from Mairead McGuinness to Heather Humphreys, with hardly a second look at poor Sean Kelly. Indeed, several prominent party figures think Humphreys is a stronger candidate than McGuinness. She is certainly much beloved throughout the Fine Gael organisation, though history teaches us that the adulation of Fine Gael is not necessarily a precursor to electoral success. And sometimes it is a very bad guide indeed.
At this point, Fine Gael are still favourites to win the presidency, and there are good reasons for that. But those expectations are double-edged. If Harris’s candidate doesn’t win – or worse, completely bombs – then the occasional mutterings about his leadership will get louder.
But at least we know what’s happening with Fine Gael. Sinn Féin, by contrast, seems consumed by indecision: will they run a candidate or not? If so, will it be Mary Lou McDonald? If not, who?
The party’s representatives have been inscrutable on the subject. Even the leader herself, normally the most sure footed of media performers, has given conflicting signals. One TD confesses to being entirely undecided. Some say it has to be McDonald; others disagree, insisting they can’t afford to lose her from Leinster House.
It is a big decision, and the stakes are high. McDonald would be a formidable candidate, for sure: but it is a hard road to victory in a contest that requires 51 per cent to win. And if she runs and underperforms, her stock internally and externally will be sorely damaged, perhaps terminally.
But even if McDonald doesn’t run, she needs a strong performance from the Sinn Féin candidate. Otherwise, her record in elections – despite her much-vaunted campaigning abilities – begins to look pretty threadbare. The risks, as the economists say, look tilted to the downside.
What about Fianna Fáil? From a position where the leadership was genuinely unenthusiastic about even running a candidate, the party now has a lengthy line-up of offerings. At the time of writing, the most credible are Jim Gavin and Billy Kelleher. The Dear Leader has been studiously non-committal, though he has let it be known that Bertie Ahern’s kind offers are surplus to requirements. I would be surprised if he doesn’t back Gavin. Both men’s style is to plan carefully before acting.
At one level, Martin is now at the height of his powers – Taoiseach after a successful general election, the most popular leader, in complete command of his party. He probably does not have to worry about the next election; that will be someone else’s problem.
But it is often when political leaders appear to at their zenith that they begin to make mistakes, and the horizon of his patronage in the party is visible. Just like his rivals, there are landmines on the path to the presidency for the Taoiseach too.
