Sinn Féin’s decision to support Catherine Connolly’s presidential bid rather than running its own candidate has been widely portrayed as a failure of ambition. But it could turn out to be the shrewdest move the party has made since it decided to recognise the legitimacy of Dáil Éireann.
Backing Connolly, Sinn Féin may actually be the “game changer”, promised by Mary Lou McDonald. By positioning itself as the undisputed leader of the left wing Opposition in the Dáil she now has a realistic chance of becoming Taoiseach after the next election.
If Sinn Féin had run its own candidate, it risked splitting the anti Government vote and possibly coming last. By waiting for the various left wing parties to declare for Connolly, and then coming in as the leading force in her campaign, the party has turned a potential problem into an opportunity and transformed the political landscape.
Whether Connolly wins or loses the presidency doesn’t really matter to Sinn Féin. Its primary focus is getting its hands on the levers of power south of the Border. Supporting Connolly has brought that prospect closer than ever and, with it, the ultimate goal of pursuing its particular vision of a united Ireland.
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The party’s domination of the Opposition benches began on the very first day of the 34th Dáil when other left wing leaders trailed out to the gates of Leinster House to provide a supporting chorus for McDonald as she denounced the Government’s deal with Independents.
By throwing its weight behind Connolly, Sinn Féin has now formalised its position as the undisputed leader of the Opposition. The Labour Party, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the various Trotskyite factions in the Dáil now appear to be content to behave as supporting acts in Sinn Féin’s grand strategy.
It could have been very different after last November’s election given that Labour, the Social Democrats and the Greens had 23 seats between them, not all that far behind Sinn Féin on 39. It was an opportunity for the democratic left to co-operate and build an alliance capable of making serious inroads into the support base of the Government parties.
[ Irish unity a ‘foregone conclusion’, says Catherine ConnollyOpens in new window ]
Instead, a mixture of ineffectual leadership, lack of ambition and a failure of nerve left them all trotting after Sinn Féin, competing in the outrage stakes which they can never win, rather than coming up with a united and coherent platform.
There is deep anxiety among many Labour supporters and some of its TDs at the party’s drift into the Sinn Féin orbit. Alan Kelly has reflected that mood by openly challenging the decision to back Connolly. But most of the party’s TDs who oppose the move are too loyal, or too embarrassed, to publicly question the decision of the party leadership.
Throwing its lot in with Sinn Féin represents a change in direction for Labour, which has for more than half a century utterly rejected any justification for the use of violence to achieve political ends. Its history has been one of commitment to a peaceful reconciliation in Northern Ireland and improved Irish/ British relations.
The Greens, like Labour, have participated in Government at various stages, with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Both smaller parties now appear to be ashamed of their past rather than taking pride in their significant achievements in office. The Social Democrats and the Trotskyists come from a different perspective and have made no secret of their enduring hostility to the current parties of Government.
By the time of the next election, expected in 2029, Fine Gael will have been in Government continuously for 18 years, with Fianna Fáil involved for 13 of those years in one way or another. By 2029 a significant portion of the electorate, particularly younger voters, will inevitably be in the mood for change.
That election will present Sinn Féin with its best chance to date of achieving power, not simply in a coalition of equals but as the dominant partner in a left wing alliance, with McDonald the clear alternative Taoiseach.
Unless the current Government can manage the near impossible - in the face of a rapidly rising population - task of solving the housing/ infrastructure challenge over the next four years, it is difficult to see how it can persuade the electorate to give it yet another term in office.
Faced with a Sinn Féin dominated Opposition, the Coalition needs to brace itself for concerted and raucous attacks for as long as the 34th Dáil lasts. Standing up to such pressure, while attempting to cope with the routine difficulties all governments face will inevitably take its toll and could even shorten the Government’s life.
Paradoxically, though, the success of Sinn Féin in taking control of the left could prove to be the Achilles heel of the Opposition. If the only alternative to the current Coalition is a Sinn Féin-led alliance promising radical change, a significant element of the electorate could baulk at the prospect.
No matter how disillusioned voters may feel, enough of them might be tempted, in Hilaire Belloc’s words, “to keep ahold of nurse for fear of finding something worse”.
