The presidential election is turning into a flaming disaster for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll, whose findings on the presidential race were published on Thursday, was worse than either feared. But it only confirmed what observation of the campaign, on the ground and on the airwaves, suggested. The only surprise was the size of Catherine Connolly’s lead. People expected that the poll would show Connolly ahead – just not by so much.
For Fine Gael, the hope that Heather Humphreys would narrow the gap with Connolly by attracting centre ground, especially Fianna Fáil, voters, was dashed under the onslaught of numbers that mean only an earthquake would change the outcome now.
We have seen, of course, dramatic turnarounds in presidential elections before. But we have never seen anything of the magnitude that would be required here. It’s possible that Humphreys performs a stunning resurrection. But it’s very unlikely.
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For Fianna Fáil the slow-motion horror show continues. There was a flicker of hope following previous polls that Jim Gavin could – mirabile dictu – get the 12.5 per cent of the vote that would have saved its election expenses. No chance of that now. Gavin, who holds one record for winning five All-Irelands in a row, is about to set another one for being Fianna Fáil’s biggest ever election disaster.
It is true that the record of presidential elections having wider political implications is decidedly mixed. But if the two Government parties and their leaders aren’t worried about this, they’re sticking their heads in the sand.
If the results of the poll published on Thursday are borne out on election day, they will represent a dramatic rejection of the centrist parties that voters elected to govern them only 11 months ago. Irish voters may have repeatedly put the centrists into power – but they reserve the right to choose something completely different for the presidency.
And given not just Connolly’s background and politics but also the fact nearly 40 per cent of voters believe the most important quality in a candidate is their willingness “to play an active role and speak out on issues”, the interaction between Government and the Áras may be about to enter a new and distinctly less congenial phase.
The presidency of Michael D Higgins redefined the relationship between president and Government, especially in his latter years. That may only be the start. Going by everything Connolly has said on the campaign trail, uneasy relations between the Áras and Government Buildings seem in prospect. There are perils in this for both sides.
If Connolly does go on to win, it will mean one of two things.
The first possibility is that voters are finally starting to look beyond Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil as their choice for the dominant, always-governing political force in the country – that they are considering seriously a left-led Government that would seek different solutions to domestic problems, a different economic model, a different presence in the EU, a different voice in the world. It would mean that perhaps the greatest political change in the country’s history is in the offing. This is certainly the interpretation that Connolly’s supporters will put on her victory, if that happens.
The second possibility is that voters, unimpressed with the options presented by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, are willing to put an outspoken left-wing voice in the Áras as a successor to an outspoken left-wing voice in the Áras. Where someone can talk a lot, but not necessarily do a lot. As my colleague Ellen Coyne suggested long before the campaign began, perhaps the same voters who have chosen centrist – or centre-right, depending on your perspective – governments like the balance provided by a left-wing presidency.
Whichever of these is correct, a Connolly victory – never mind one by the sort of margins the poll suggested was likely – would be an enormous fillip for the political left that assembled behind her, and a humbling defeat for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
From start to finish – or at least from start to this point – the identification, selection and management of their candidates has been a catastrophe. It is hard to believe that the fallout in both parties will end with next week’s count – especially when you consider the slump in support for Fianna Fáil and for Micheál Martin personally recorded in today’s poll. Martin has been the most popular of the three main party leaders for the past year; now he is the least popular. Fianna Fáil’s rating falls by five points to 17 per cent today, the lowest in more than four years. If those numbers continue for any length of time, he will have to watch himself.
[ Micheál Martin and Simon Harris are not doomed. YetOpens in new window ]
The drama of the presidential election and its fallout should not blind us to the flaws that it has demonstrated in the whole enterprise. Half of voters believe they are not represented by the candidates; nearly half would have liked to see Maria Steen in the race. That would certainly have given us a livelier election.
Steen was legitimately excluded, but – presumably thinking about her – voters believe it should be easier get into the contest. They’re right. But not too much easier, mind.
All the candidates say they wouldn’t serve a second term. They’re right too. Fourteen years: you’d serve less for murder. It should be cut to five. Yes, we had a referendum on that previously and it was defeated. We have rerun lots of referendums.
Connolly says she wants to open up the Áras. That would be welcome, whoever gets there. The Áras under Michael D has disclosed only what it wants to about its activities. The presidency should be more open, more accountable and more transparent – whoever holds the office.
