The origin of Micheál Martin’s problems this week was not failure in the presidential election. Instead, it was success in the general election. His problem in the presidential election was not Jim Gavin’s failure to pay back rent owed to his tenant; it was Martin’s decision to pick a candidate who was completely unsuitable.
Gavin’s sudden departure from the race on October 5th was a lucky day for Martin – the alternative was that a candidacy already under water would have sunk to the bottom before election day 20 days later.
Those events, stunning as they were, crystallised Martin’s problem with his parliamentary party, but they are not the origin of it. The political context changed fundamentally within Fianna Fáil after the general election last November. On a marginally lower vote but benefiting from a disastrous Fine Gael campaign, he collected the entire seat bonus of the two government parties and added 10 new TDs to his tally.
That changed the internal dynamics within Fianna Fáil to his disadvantage. He was master of a tightly controlled, smaller parliamentary party. Now in a larger party with more dynamism, his modus operandi – which could be summarised as command and control, but not consultation – has faltered.
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But the Taoiseach had already undermined himself.
He arrived in the new Dáil the clear victor of the general election. Unlike in 2020, when he led a poor campaign and avoided losing the leadership only by achieving the improbable and putting an unlikely government together, by 2024 he was master of his party and destined to lead the new Government. Squandering that advantage began immediately. Months of time and endless political capital were spent on a row over voting rights for some independent TDs that should never have been started. There was subsequently a diversion over a so-called housing tsar. More importantly, he has led a government for nearly a year without a sense of purpose or much to show for itself. There has been the lowest volume of legislation enacted by a new government in its first year of office this century.
Martin went into the summer prevaricating about whether to run a Fianna Fáil candidate in the presidential election. His doubts may have been well founded, but they were not shared by many of his colleagues, nor was their opinion asked for. The casual lethargy that characterised the presidential selection process was a continuum of the tempo in government generally. Fianna Fáil’s lack of momentum was compounded by its partners. Fine Gael’s capacity is at its lowest ebb since the aftermath of its electoral rout in 2002. The Government’s independent supporters are canny politicians but have little broader vision.
Fianna Fáil’s five-hour parliamentary party meeting on Tuesday night about an internal report on the presidential election focused on all those events. But it came out of a context where the party’s momentum has slipped continuously since the last election, when its seat gains were facilitated by Fine Gael falling behind. Holding those seats four years from now is far from certain. The first year in government – which is the best time for brave decisions – has been largely wasted. Next year, our small government system will be immersed in preparing for and delivering an EU presidency, something that will be deeply demanding on the attention of the Taoiseach and key ministers. Fianna Fáil’s tenure in the Taoiseach’s office is over in November 2027.
Political rotation has diminished the Taoiseach’s role, not just because it imposes a time limit, but because it limits the scope of power that comes with the possibility of continuity in office. It is real-time passenger information for civil servants and backbenchers who should never know when the master might leave. It hangs over Fianna Fáil’s considerations now.
This issue, together with electoral fragmentation, is the cause and effect of the State’s incapacity to deliver on key issues for its people, chiefly on housing. It is this diminishment, more than anything else, that undermines Martin. His managerialism worked during the last government, and he exceeded expectations dealing with Covid and Brexit. The Greens contributed ideological vim and a ready-made agenda. Now with no crises, only a debilitating lack of delivery, the Government seems apathetic and uninspiring. Martin is busy out, but has no clear agenda or definable political identity. There are only lengthening lists of to-dos.
The presidential election is now past tense for Fianna Fáil. Martin begins his first and last full calendar year as Taoiseach in this Dáil on January 1st. Politicians were always time poor, but time has tightened further and so has electoral uncertainty. 2026 marks the 100th anniversary of Fianna Fáil. Its historical electoral success was based on a working-class hinterland and an evocation of national identity. Neither exist now for Fianna Fáil and nothing they have to offer will recover either.
What will determine Martin’s longevity in office is his capacity to reassure colleagues that he is an electoral asset between now and the lead-in to an election. He has several advantages, not least the platform of his office, a capacity to divide his critics and their inability to perfect the art of political assassination. But he has used up another of his political lives. Brow beating colleagues into supporting Jim Gavin squandered his own capital. Several will be less amenable to being told what to do in future. If he survives to 2027 – and he might – his unfettered control will be diminished. He is an old dog who must learn new tricks dealing with colleagues, which will not come naturally.
Martin had a genius for playing a weak hand well, but what he has never done is set the political pace with an inspiring agenda. In 2025, he enjoyed the greatest scope for initiative in his career in a Government where he is clearly the primary player, and in a party where he was the undisputed leader. It may not be too late, but he must adjust to the different reality he now leads in.
Gerard Howlin is a public affairs consultant who was a Fianna Fáil adviser from 1995 to 2007. He does not advise any political parties.
