There has been a strangely subdued reaction to the proposal to turn Newry into a commuter base for Dublin. The Newry Next plan would see 6,000 houses built in and around the Co Down city over 10 years. Lower taxes and construction costs mean a new house that might sell for €400,000 in Mullingar would be €150,000 cheaper north of the Border. Dublin commuters would also benefit from the North’s lower cost of living while continuing to earn higher southern wages. Newry has good road and rail links to Dublin and Belfast, making it a potential commuter hub for an east coast economic corridor – a concept that has long attracted official interest.
The 64-page Newry Next report was distributed to political parties in Northern Ireland last week by its authors, businessman Paschal Taggart and artificial intelligence adviser Ger Perdisatt. Initial feedback was reportedly positive. However, the only public expression of support was from the SDLP. Justin McNulty, the party’s Newry MLA, posted on X: “This proposal is a plan on a plate for the Northern Executive and must be explored.”
The SDLP is Stormont’s official opposition. Lack of enthusiasm from the executive parties is presumably because they are responsible for the main obstacle identified in the report: underinvestment in the water system. “No drains, no cranes,” as McNulty added on X.
The report addresses this head-on, proposing a £107 million (€123 million) investment in water to enable £1.5 billion of further investment as the plan is delivered. But this may have become too touchy a subject for even that to be discussed. Overloaded sewers are already holding up 1,300 houses and 30 commercial developments in Newry, a fiasco replicated across Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin and the DUP are too spineless to implement the only realistic solutions: introducing household water charges, substantially raising domestic property taxes or making serious cuts elsewhere. Both parties would be ridiculed for welcoming Newry Next, as they apparently realise.
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The Republic appears to be getting the better deal from Newry Next, as cross-Border workers living in the North pay their income tax in the South. However, the Republic is also liable for all their social security payments, under the terms of the Common Travel Area
Among the many reasons this is a pity is that the plan is politically inoffensive enough to attract cross-community support. It is a cross-Border project, which should please nationalists, yet it depends on the Border, which should reassure unionists. The estimated 15,000 extra residents it would bring would include few if any unionist voters but Newry is already so nationalist this may make little electoral difference.
Silence from politicians has been accompanied by scepticism from the public. On social media, residents have asked how the city’s schools, health services and transportation can cope with the population expanding by 50 per cent. The report does consider this and identifies vital investment but it has not been made publicly available and, in any case, there is little confidence Stormont could deliver the necessary improvements.
The Irish Government would also have to deliver a major rail upgrade. Morning trains to Dublin are already packed and frequency cannot be increased without doubling the tracks through north Dublin, a scheme not due for completion until the mid-2040s. The Republic appears to be getting the better deal from Newry Next, as cross-Border workers living in the North pay their income tax in the South. However, the Republic is also liable for all their social security payments, under the terms of the Common Travel Area. These workers would pay about £10 million annually in northern property taxes once all 6,000 houses were built, with half the revenue going to Stormont and the rest to Newry’s council. That is a drop in the bucket for Stormont but it would be a solid 7 per cent addition to the council’s budget. There would be further economic gains as Newry’s new residents spent their above-average disposable incomes on local goods and services.
A far greater windfall for Stormont is being overlooked. Although its block grant from London is more complicated than a per-capita allocation, that is how it works out in practice, at about £10,000 per head. So 15,000 more people are worth £150 million a year, a significant sum for Stormont, almost enough to modernise the entire water system and more than enough to deliver everything necessary in Newry. The UK treasury might take a dim view of British taxpayers subsidising Dublin’s commuter belt but that is what would happen under the current funding model.
Of course, Newry Next is about more than dry accounting. It is an ambitious vision for growth, just as that question is about to take an unprecedented turn. Northern Ireland’s population is projected to peak in 2033, then fall indefinitely, even allowing for immigration, while the rest of the UK and Ireland may grow for another 50 years. Population decline will turn society and the economy upside down and nobody has a clue how to deal with it.
Offering Newry up as Dublin’s dormitory may be the best suggestion so far.
