It’s sometimes hard to take in just how much the world has changed. This week will have helped, though. Two speeches, and one widely shared ancient Greek aphorism, summarised the end of the old world order and the emergence of something new, more uncertain and, for small and medium-sized countries, vastly more threatening. What they do about it is now the most pressing task facing the leaders of these countries – including our own.
The speech given by US president Donald Trump in which he demanded that Denmark cede sovereignty of Greenland (occasionally calling it Iceland, though) to the United States and warned everyone else not to get in the way, before reluctantly ruling out military action to seize the territory, was shocking only to people who have not watched the Full Trumpy before.
That’s a lot of people, of course. We consume Trump’s interventions in short soundbites, video clips and memes. But watch a full speech, or a full press conference and you’ll see the full show: braggadocio, threats, self-aggrandisement and lies – delivered with a mix of menace, confusion and, yes, humour. Trump is undeniably funny. Terrifying, yes, but funny. Henry Kissinger said that in politics you could be intentionally funny or you’re unintentionally funny. Trump is both.
You can watch the speech back or get a transcript online. Brace yourself.
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Trump followed up the speech with more public appearances – his presidency seems to be conducted almost entirely in front of the cameras – before announcing a “deal” which would satisfy his ambitions in Greenland while maintaining Danish sovereignty. The details are still unclear, but the sigh of relief from Davos was audible around the world. Crisis averted, for now.
The other significant speech was delivered by the Canadian prime minister Mark Carney.
He began with the Greek aphorism of the week: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,” which he suggested now described the emerging world of great-power competition, in which smaller and mid-sized countries would be bullied and squeezed by the “hegemons”.
The world, he said, is in the midst of “a rupture, not a transition”.
The “middle powers”, Carney warned, must act together to establish a new system of alliances “because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu”.
[ How should the EU deal with Trump? Speak softly and carry a big stickOpens in new window ]
The world described by Trump, Carney and Thucydides is the one that Ireland and the EU must quickly learn to navigate.
According to people involved in high-level discussions on this in Davos, Dublin and Brussels this week, the principal lesson that EU leaders have taken from the dramatic events on Wednesday is that they need to stand up to Trump, not scramble to appease him.
The grab for Greenland has finally convinced them that the US is not just going through a difficult phase. It is now, in the words of one senior official, “not an ally”. The extent to which the Trump administration wants to see the EU damaged or destroyed – by both internal and external pressure – has taken some time to be internalised by EU leaders. But this week showed that now they get it.
And that is likely to manifest itself in a more robust approach from the EU to the Trump administration. It will be a bumpy ride.
“Lots of people now believe you have to stand up,” said another source familiar discussions among European leaders. “The lesson of this week is: European solidarity works.”
But there are reasons to doubt that the EU will successfully manage the transition to the new world order. It requires a willingness to change, and change quickly; to accept new constraints on social spending in order to build up military capacities; to enhance competitiveness and promote economic growth; to rapidly build Europe’s strategic autonomy – in other words, to transform our ability to look after ourselves in a more unfriendly, less co-operative world.
Whatever about their leaders, some of this is not going to be terribly popular with European voters.
Never forget the EU’s undiminished capacity to shoot itself in both feet. This week also saw the vote of the European Parliament, backed by a majority of Irish MEPs of course, to delay the Mercosur trade agreement with South American countries. Just at a time when the US is turning away from Europe, Europe decides to turn away from another giant market for reciprocal trade.
What are the other implications for Ireland? The prospect of a trade war or other aggressive acts presents obvious dangers for a country that has built its fortune by being the conduit for trade across the Atlantic. Ireland walks a tightrope between Washington and Brussels, Boston and Berlin. The tightrope may be getting narrower; it may ultimately fray and snap. That would have profound implications for this country, economically and therefore politically.
But a stronger EU in the world is also good for Ireland. It is our most important relationship – more important than with the UK, as Brexit made clear, and more important than the US.
It is certainly in Ireland’s interest to maintain close relations between the US and EU. So we will try our darndest to avoid any irretrievable breach with the US. The demand to boycott the St Patrick’s Day visit is the sort of posing you get to do in Opposition, and everyone knows it. But ultimately if forced to choose between the EU and the US – the nightmare for any Irish Government – we will choose the EU.
We have no control and only marginal influence over whether that happens. So the Government will try to follow the rugby coaches’ advice and “control the controllables”. These are difficult but straightforward: diversify our economy and markets; run stable and prudent public finances; do our bit on EU defence.
Let’s hope that in a new and threatening world, our luck holds. But we need to be prepared for what happens if it doesn’t.
