Most political commentary is naturally focused on the performance of the Government but, after more than a year in office, maybe it is time to ask how the Opposition is shaping up as an alternative. The short answer is that it is becalmed, just like the Coalition.
After President Catherine Connolly’s victory, there was a great deal of talk about the potential for a united left alliance to sweep the boards when the next general election comes around.
The latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll indicates that the Opposition parties have slipped back to about the same level of support as the Coalition, and there is no sign of the much-heralded breakthrough. The forthcoming byelections in Dublin Central and Galway West may paint a different picture but the poll should give all of the Opposition parties pause for thought.
Sinn Féin suffered a sudden decline in support in the run-up to the general election of November 2024, confounding the pundits who had been predicting confidently for years that it was on course to lead the next government.
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It quickly got over that shattering disappointment and has dominated the Opposition benches since. Its opposition to the appointment of Verona Murphy as Ceann Comhairle on day one gave the party a cause to pursue with vehemence.
It followed up with the shrewd decision not to contest the presidential election with a candidate of its own, but to support Connolly, along with the left-wing parties in the Dáil. This was an opportunity to give the Government a bloody nose while avoiding the risk of either coming second in the contest, or possibly losing McDonald to the Áras.
In the wake of the election last November, it appeared that a new political configuration led by Sinn Féin was in prospect. However, instead of building back up to support levels in the mid 30 per cent range, which it had achieved on a consistent basis between 2020 and 2024, the latest poll shows it dropping back three points. It seems the party is stuck in a groove with its level of support drifting up as high as 27 per cent down to 22 per cent since the general election. While it is still the largest party, it does not currently appear to have the momentum to build enough support to lead the next government.
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One of the reasons for this may be that its core objective of holding a Border poll as a stepping stone to a united Ireland simply does not resonate with enough people. Another could be that while its aggressive style of opposition clearly appeals to one segment of the electorate, an even bigger segment finds it off-putting.
While Sinn Féin has slipped, the slack has not been taken up by either the moderate or the hard left. People Before Profit is stuck on just 2 per cent and while the Social Democrats have gone up two points, Labour has slipped two. The Greens have held steady, particularly in Dublin.
These three parties have some serious thinking to do about where they want to go in the coming years. Do they want to act as support groups for Sinn Féin or try to build a moderate left-wing alternative? From the opening day of the current Dáil, they dutifully trotted out behind McDonald on one big issue after another, but there were signs of a change last week.
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Their decision to vote with the Government on aid for Ukraine may be a sign that they can escape from the suffocating embrace of Sinn Féin which, unsurprisingly, opposed EU support for the beleaguered Ukrainians. Sinn Féin and People Before Profit were joined in their opposition to aid for Ukraine by Independent Ireland and Aontú. As in other EU countries, parties further to the left and right found common cause on the issue.
The message for the Social Democrats, Labour and the Greens in the current phase of political stasis is that they need to win over voters from Sinn Féin, rather than trotting after it.
One way of doing this would be to present themselves as willing to go into government with any of the big Dáil parties to pursue their policy objectives. Labour and the Greens have done this in the past and have serious achievements to their credit.
The Greens are proud of their achievements in office. By contrast, Labour not only doesn’t broadcast them but appears to be ashamed of ever being in government. The two parties have undoubtedly made a difference and can do so in the future if they are straight with the electorate about their ambitions, and how they intend to pursue them.
The Social Democrats are a different proposition. They have poured scorn on those who have ever served in government. This raises questions about what they actually want to achieve in politics, apart from standing on the moral high ground. One way or another, all three parties will never have a better opportunity to build.
