There is, it appears, a contest. Government complacency will be shattered by the findings of today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll which show that on the basis of current support, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats would not be in a position to form a government. At the same time, support for Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party has placed them in a commanding position. Such party combinations are not, however, exhaustive.
The volatility of the electorate will be particularly disturbing to Fianna Fáil backbenchers because it was so unexpected. Having gone through a nervous period in 2006, they had witnessed a spectacular improvement in their fortunes in the autumn. With the help of a caring Budget and an excessively expansionist National Development Plan, they had expected to coast towards a comfortable summer election. But support for Fianna Fáil has dropped by three points, to 37 per cent, and all bets are off. Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating declined by the same amount.
The Progressive Democrats will have much to ponder as they consider the worst-ever opinion poll result since the foundation of the party. At a single percentage point, the party is threatened by implosion. And there is no doubt that the daily diet of health issues, policy which manifests itself in the stories of peoples' lives, has had a damaging impact. The new party leader, Michael McDowell, can take little consolation from the fact that his personal satisfaction rating rose by six points.
Promoters of the formal alliance between Fine Gael and the Labour Party will also be disappointed because their parties failed to gain from Government setbacks. Fine Gael dropped a point to 26 per cent while support for Labour remained static at 11 points. Having opened a debate on immigration, Enda Kenny saw his satisfaction rating drop by two points while Pat Rabbitte who had become the focus of media attention concerning government formation options added a point.
The main beneficiaries from altered public attitudes are the Green Party and Sinn Féin. Both are emerging as possible key players in the formation of the next government. Sinn Féin's recent endorsement of the forces of law and order on both sides of the Border nudged its support level up two points to 9 per cent. Green Party support doubled to 8 per cent following campaigns on the need to tackle global warming and to provide efficient public transport.
With at least three months to go to an election, these findings will add excitement and interest to the proceedings. The public is certainly unsettled and does not want to be taken for granted. This tendency is most evident in Dublin and the rest of Leinster where support for the Government has fallen by seven points in two months. Young people and pensioners have been most affected by these stirrings of discontent and it remains to be seen whether their concerns will impact on the broader electorate.