The report of the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs presents an ambitious vision of the future. It envisages the Republic as a leading player in the knowledge economy by 2020, with a highly skilled and flexible workforce.
To achieve that target, there is much to be done. Some 500,000 people will need to raise their level of educational attainment. Participation at third level will have to increase from 55 per cent of Leaving Cert students to 72 per cent; and the Leaving Cert retention rate will have to increase from 82 to 90 per cent within 13 years.
The report - Tomorrow's Skills: Towards a National Skills Strategy - envisages a workforce of some 2.4 million by 2020 as migrant workers and women returning to employment make a still greater contribution to the economy. It makes the case that there is no feasible alternative. Without this upskilling, the Republic will languish behind its competitors - a point underlined by recent job losses.
But there are significant hurdles in the way of implementation, including practical problems. How many women would like to return to the workforce but cannot do so due to inadequate childcare provision? How many workers would like to upskill but lack the financial resources and/or the job flexibility required? How many schools provide the level of language support that newcomer children will need if they are to play a full part in our society and boost economic progress?
There is also the question of resources. The National Development Plan has allocated more than €2 billion to education and retraining until 2013. Will the exchequer be able to make the same level of commitment until 2020? And how will the third-level system bear the cost of thousands of additional students when it is struggling to deal with the current cohort - as UCC president Dr Michael Murphy outlined in recent days? Minister for Education Mary Hanafin again ruled out the return of third-level fees yesterday but there is an increasing sense that the issue is back on the agenda, even if it must be parked until after the general election.
The expert group's report does not mention fees. Nor does it provide detailed costings. But it does offer a roadmap as to how its ambitious vision can become a reality. Ms Hanafin appeared optimistic at its publication yesterday, pointing to the great strides made in third-level participation and Leaving Cert retention in the past, and expressing confidence about another quantum leap for our education system between today and 2020. It is to be hoped that the Minister's assessment is correct.