The Taoiseach’s declaration that the Government will propose a referendum to abolish Ireland’s constitutional ban on abortion, and that he would personally back it, was hardly unexpected. But it was certainly dramatic.
The lengthy Cabinet meeting, the late-night press conference at Government Buildings carried on live television, the Taoiseach speaking directly to the nation, the reporters scrambling to make deadlines – it was all reminiscent of the dramatic days of the bailout in 2010.
Never mind that nothing that transpired was a surprise to anyone who had been following the events of recent weeks. The Taoiseach’s audience wasn’t the hungry reporters, or the campaigners on either side watching intently and tweeting their approval or dismay: it was the middle-ground voters who will decide the fate of the Eighth that he had in mind. It always is.
Even though the repealers begin the campaign with an advantage, they have a fight on their hands
Of course, there was a predictable outpouring of celebration among Repealers, many of whom expressed their gratitude to the Taoiseach for his support on an issue about which they have deep personal feelings. Anti-abortion campaigners were correspondingly critical. Fervour is in plentiful supply on both sides.
In truth, the campaign has been under way on both sides for a long time now. The Government has also been preparing the ground. Enda Kenny skilfully kept the abortion issue from splitting either of the two governments he led. But when he took office, Leo Varadkar knew he would have to deal with it definitively. The Taoiseach is not making this up as he goes along. That’s not the sort of politician he is.
Unpredictable
But events will move beyond his control as the campaign gathers steam. No politician controls a campaign; their dynamics are inherently unpredictable. But it’s possible to describe some things that are likely to feature in the early stages, at least.
At his evening press conference on Monday night, the Taoiseach insisted that “the referendum will not be on the draft legislation. The referendum will be on the Amendment to the Constitution”.
That seems like wishful thinking. A substantial part of the campaign, at least in its early stages, will be about the 12 weeks proposal. Why? Because what replaces the general ban on abortion has always been the big unknown. We’ve known for a long time that people wanted to relax Ireland’s ban on abortion. What we didn’t know – nobody did – was what they wanted to replace it with.
The polls can only be indicative at this stage of the contest and the experience of referendum campaigns in the past shows how voters’ opinions can change.
The Irish Times poll last week suggested that middle-ground voters were supportive of the repeal and 12 weeks proposal, and that – crucially – those who had changed their minds in the past year were much more likely to back the Government’s proposals.
But another poll in the Sunday Business Post at the weekend suggested that while the majority for repeal is hefty, the public is less convinced on the 12 weeks proposal. There will be many more polls before the campaign is out. But it is clear that even though the repealers begin the campaign with an advantage, they have a fight on their hands. And four months is a long time.
Hard sell
Government sources acknowledge that the 12 weeks legislation will be a hard sell, and the Taoiseach knows it. Whichever way you look at it, it will mean the legalisation of almost all Irish abortions at a stroke – those that take place in England and those that take place in Irish bedrooms and bathrooms after consumption of abortion pills.
About time, say the repealers. About time, says the Taoiseach. It’s time to acknowledge Irish abortions, wherever they take place. But anti-abortion campaigners question: can a proposal that legalises almost all abortions be characterised as the “middle ground” in the debate?
The central thrust of the political debate so far has been about women, not unborn children
Initial soundings of TDs suggest that passing the 12 weeks law will be a stiffer test than passing the referendum Bill. But if the people approve the constitutional change – with the 12 weeks proposal an integral part of that debate – it will change completely the political context in which the 12 week question will be considered by the Oireachtas. In effect, the people will have spoken on it. It’s hard to see TDs blocking it then.
Much of the early focus for anti-abortion campaigners has been on the disability issue, in particular the issue of Down syndrome, reflecting previous research carried out by campaigning groups. The repeal side has countered with appeals from disability groups and expert views which point out the difficulties in detecting Downs before the 12-week cut-off. Presumably though, detection will improve. And Down syndrome births usually decline in countries where abortion is available. The anti-abortion campaigners won’t let this point go.
Middle phase
The detail of the draft legislation, due in early March, will be important in the middle phase of the campaign. The Government is likely to spell out how restrictive or otherwise the laws on abortion after 12 weeks would be. The recommendations of the Oireachtas committee were that abortions be permitted in cases where the woman’s life or health (mental or physical) is at risk.
In his statement, the Taoiseach said that after 12 weeks "abortion will only be allowed in exceptional circumstances such as a serious (our italics) risk to the life or health of the woman". Such differences could become important.
This is the third time since 1983 that voters have been asked to change the constitutional law on abortion.
But there is one big difference this time: the central thrust of the political debate so far has been about women, not unborn children. That reflects a great change in society, in our public culture, in politics.
As long as the debate is focused on women and their needs, the repeal side will have a great advantage.