President-elect Joe Biden has appointed leading figures from the Obama administration to his foreign affairs and national security teams by but there can be no return to Obama era policies in the conflicted Middle East.
The region has been totally transformed over the past 12 years. As vice-president in ex-president Barak Obama’s administration, Biden has to avoid repeating its mistakes and try to mend damage inflicted by outgoing president Donald Trump.
Obama began with an unprecedented effort to cultivate good relations with the Muslim world and settle the Arab-Israeli conflict by promoting the “two state solution” mandating the creation of a Palestinian state despite its rejection by Israel.
He failed in both endeavours and to address constructively the challenges posed by Arab Spring uprisings, civil war in Syria and Libya, repression in Egypt, the rise of al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the Houthi rebellion in Yemen which led to Saudi-Emirati military intervention.
Instead of ratcheting up tensions with Muslims, Biden plans to address their grievances by cancelling Trump's entry ban
Obama’s sole regional success was the 2015 agreement to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbing its nuclear programme.
Donald Trump’s policies and actions were both whimsical and self-interested. His first act was to court Muslim hostility by banning citizens of Muslim majority countries from entering the US.
He exited the nuclear deal, delegitimised and defunded the Palestinians, approved of Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory and pressured Arab rulers to normalise relations with Israel. He backed Egypt’s crackdown on dissent and the Saudi-Emirati war in Yemen. He partnered Kurdish and pro-Iranian Shia militias in the fight against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, thereby unleashing new non-state actors to the conflict-ridden region.
Instead of ratcheting up tensions with Muslims, Biden plans to address their grievances by cancelling Trump’s entry ban, enabling students to attend universities, family reunions, and professionals to secure employment.
Biden’s regional priority is to ease tensions between Shia Iran and Sunni Arab states. He has pledged to re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran once Tehran returns to compliance. Having taken part in negotiations over the deal, Biden and two candidates for senior posts, Antony Blinken (secretary of state) and Jake Sullivan (national security), are eager to resurrect it.
Since Trump pulled out in 2018, Iran has exceeded limits for stockpiles of enriched uranium and developed more advanced centrifuges for enrichment than specified in the deal. These measures can be reversed by exporting enriched uranium and warehousing centrifuges.
Easing sanctions will not only reduce tensions but cut negative impacts on Lebanon and Syria
Biden considers re-entry as “a starting point for follow-on negotiations” over Iran’s ballistic missile development and involvement in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Sequencing could be an issue since Iran argues it will resume compliance only once the US does.
Biden can re-enter with an executive order but addressing the “wall of sanctions” erected by Trump could be problematic. Time cannot be wasted. Tehran has threatened further measures if Biden fails to act by February and the term of pro-deal president Hassan Rouhani expires in June when Iranians go to the polls to elect a replacement.
Fresh approaches
The ruling clerics might be encouraged to revive the deal if sanctions are lifted on oil exports, accounts in foreign banks, and foreign financial transactions. Easing sanctions will not only reduce tensions but cut negative impacts on Lebanon and Syria. Biden will have to devise fresh approaches to these two countries rather than treating them as Iranian adjuncts.
Although he cannot reverse all the harm Trump has done to the Palestinians, Biden will not follow Trump’s example by giving a free hand to Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Biden has pledged to restore US contributions to the UN agency caring for Palestinian refugees and to Palestinian institutions and development projects. He plans to recommit to the “two-state solution” rejected by his predecessor and Israel.
Although Baghdad would welcome US return to the nuclear deal, Biden's election has had a mixed reaction in Iraq
While Biden welcomes Arab normalisation with Israel, he is unlikely to press further Arab governments to establish relations unless talks between Palestinians and Israelis resume. Blinken has said Biden will not force concessions from Israel by threatening to cut $3.8 billion in annual military aid.
Biden will have to address massive arms sales to the Emirates and Saudi Arabia while they prosecute their deadly and destructive war in Yemen, the Arab world’s poorest country. On this issue he could have bipartisan Congressional support since both Democrats and Republicans favour a halt the lucrative trade.
While Trump courted and coddled authoritarians in Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Biden is expected to press them to free imprisoned activists and end massive human rights abuses.
Although Baghdad would welcome US return to the nuclear deal, Biden’s election has had a mixed reaction in Iraq. He is viewed with suspicion for supporting the 2003 US war on that country and for calling in 2006 for its division into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions as this could would lead to massive ethnic and sectarian cleansing.
Biden seeks to restore US credibility undermined by Trump’s exit of the nuclear deal, transactional dealings with the Saudis and Emiratis, total support for Israel, and confused policies toward Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. By restoring informed institutional policy making he could contribute to the stabilisation of the deeply troubled region.
Michael Jansen is based in Cyprus and writes for The Irish Times on the Middle East