Suddenly Tony Blair looks vulnerable as British prime minister. He has had a dreadful week in which he won an important education reform Bill only with the help of Conservative votes and found himself mired in controversy when it was revealed that secret loans to the Labour Party were made in the expectation that peerages would be awarded in return.
A tipping point has now been reached on the wider question of how long he should remain as party leader. Having made and announced the decision that he will not lead it into the next general election, Mr Blair put himself squarely in the firing line for periodic speculation along these lines. But it will be increasingly difficult for him to withstand the pressure, given these misfortunes, falling public support and the near completion of his agenda.
He has been prime minister for nine years, has won three elections in a row and has left an indelible stamp on party policy and national politics. His longer-term projects of domestic economic, constitutional and social reform have largely been put in place.
There was substantial continuity from the previous Conservative administrations on basic orientations of economic policy, combined with strong macroeconomic management and international performance. Blair's "third way" approach has built on those foundations and commanded support in middle England, where he consistently outflanked the Conservative opposition.
Internationally, Mr Blair's undertaking that he would bring the United Kingdom to the heart of Europe has been in a continuous tug of war with his Atlanticism, which was highlighted by the war in Iraq. He made a Faustiapact with the British Eurosceptic media which resulted in the EU issue never being pushed strongly at home. Iraq and Britain's international economic strength have given him the leeway to do so, and he has delivered effectively enough on the EU and G8 presidencies and on African renewal.
There is little sign that he commands the emerging international agenda on energy, climate change and geopolitical shifts towards Asia. The war in Iraq now combines with the image of political sleaze about party funding to drag his showing in the opinion polls down to new lows. As he contemplates the case for staying in office until next year rather than this summer, Mr Blair will have Northern Ireland's future in mind as a central piece of his business yet to be completed. The Belfast Agreement and improved relations with this State must rank among his greatest achievements.
They have relied centrally on his personal commitment and drive and there is a good case for him to see a new power-sharing arrangement into place before he leaves office. That provides opportunities for all concerned to redouble their efforts, since Gordon Brown, his presumed successor, does not share them. Devolution in Scotland and Wales have also been among Mr Blair's most radical achievements, driven as much by political necessity as conviction. These changes will have lasting consequences.