The good news for Ireland from this week's drama in the House of Commons is that thanks to Theresa May's deal with the sensible wing of the Conservative Party the prospect of a no-deal Brexit now seems remote at best. Given the many twists and turns in the Brexit process to date, nothing can be totally ruled out but it would appear that the United Kingdom is heading in the direction of a soft Brexit.
However, even if the doomsday scenario looks to be off the table there is still huge uncertainty about the precise nature of the deal that will ultimately emerge and the Irish Government will have some difficult calls to make in the months ahead.
It is generally accepted that agreement on the Irish backstop, which was due to be finalised at the EU summit in Brussels next week, will have to be postponed because the British have still not come up with an acceptable formula to deal with a frictionless border.
“This is all going to go down to the wire in October and the Irish issue will inevitably be a pawn in the end game as the final shape of future relationship between the EU and the UK is sorted out,” said one senior Brussels figure.
He added that Ireland did not have a lot to fear from this scenario as support for this country is solid across the EU while there is little sympathy for the British position. Still, if everything is up for grabs in October the Irish side will have difficult decisions to make under pressure.
Former taoiseach Enda Kenny warned this week that the European Council meeting in October would not be a negotiating meeting. “If negotiations have not been concluded before that meeting, then the EU Council will meet to discuss among themselves without Britain. This is really crucial,” Kenny said on Monday when being presented with the European of the Year award in Dublin.
In his speech, Kenny scotched any notion that he favoured a softer approach to the negotiations than his successor Leo Varadkar. He pointed out that six months on from the Irish backstop agreement last December, very little progress had been made to flesh it out.
Spectre of Labour
“The EU continues to negotiate from a unified position, British business is afraid to speak out because of the spectre of a Labour government,” he added.
While he is right to point out that October is the deadline for the UK to agree a final legal text of the withdrawal agreement, so that it can be ratified by the European Council and Parliament as well as the House of Commons, deadlines can always be deferred if necessary.
Boris Johnson's derogatory comment about the tail wagging the dog reflects his real view of this country
The crucial thing about May’s agreement with Tory moderates this week is that a hard Brexit no longer appears to be a live option. This is due to the persistence and clever parliamentary tactics of a relatively small group of courageous MPs who have been so vilified by a section of the British media that their lives have been threatened.
Chief among them is former attorney general Dominic Grieve, who tabled this week’s Commons motion to strengthen parliament’s role in the Brexit negotiations. After receiving assurances from May, he voted with the government but was adamant that the concerns of his group would be addressed. “I expect the government to honour its commitments . . . If it were to turn out there was a problem, we will deal with it,” he remarked when some of Tory Brexiteers insisted that May had not modified her position.
Grieve is a long-time member of the British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly. He has a detailed knowledge of this country and the problems that will be created if Brexit results in the restoration of a hard border.
Time-limited backstop
How the Border circle can be squared remains one of the most intractable elements of the negotiations in the months ahead. The British plan published last week for a time-limited backstop for the entire UK represents some movement in the right direction but there is a long way to go.
Varadkar gave it a tentative welcome but EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier took a decidedly more negative view expressing serious doubts about how a backstop arrangement to keep Northern Ireland in regulatory alignment with the EU could be applied to the whole of the UK. He remarked that what was feasible for a territory the size of the North might not be feasible for the UK as a whole.
The fact the Border is such an important issue for the entire EU is a tribute to the approach taken by the Government and its officials and has undoubtedly helped to push the British in the direction of a soft rather than a hard Brexit. That has infuriated Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson. His derogatory comment about the tail wagging the dog reflects his real view of this country.
This week’s Commons manoeuvring has put Johnson and his cronies on the back foot. They will undoubtedly make further efforts to drag things back their way but for the moment at least their desire for a no-deal Brexit has been thwarted.