The Government has a difficult message to sell next week: the lockdown will go on and will not be reviewed again until late in May, with some limited modifications. The further reopening of construction after Easter is in the balance. The 5km restriction may be eased a bit and there will be some more outdoor activity allowed. The school reopening should be completed. But that will be it for now.
The better news is that a good deal more should be possible by the end of May, assuming the vaccine ramp-up goes as planned. The public has heard so many stories about vaccination supply problems at this stage that many have started to lose heart. But supply seems to be stabilising, and the challenge may soon move to how quickly jabs can be delivered to people’s arms. The stakes here – for health, society and the economy – could hardly be higher. All our eggs are in this particular basket.
Two divergent international trends will play into the debate. The first are reopening plans in countries that are ahead of the vaccination curve, including the US, the UK and Israel. Denmark, too, is promising to have much of the economy reopened by the end of May, by which time it hopes all over the age of 50 will be vaccinated.
The Danish plan looks ambitious, given the other trend – a real resurgence of cases across Europe, which has left policy in countries such as Germany in a mess and led to restrictions being tightened in some countries. Privately, senior Government figures are hearing real worry from their counterparts across the EU. Many fear the kind of trend we saw here in January.
This is very much feeding into the mood around the Cabinet table. It is most unlikely that Ministers will go against Nphet’s advice in any major way. This will be that the risk of any significant easing is now too high. It would seem to make sense to focus on the areas causing problems – people visiting each other’s homes, for example – and give people more leeway to do things outdoors. A game of golf or tennis hardly looks risky –but the clubhouse stays firmly closed. But a very cautious approach seems certain.
Limited lobbying This time around, there has been limited lobbying for early reopening by key sectors or interest groups – bar the unlikely combination of the Archbishop of Dublin and Tom Parlon of the Construction Industry Federation. Even so, the further reopening of construction after Easter seems to be in the balance. The issue here is mobility and the mixing
that is inevitable as sectors reopen, no matter how well they are regulated. Given the outdoor nature of construction and its vital economic role, there is a strong case to reopen.
Across the economy, pain is growing all the time and will be long-lasting. The economy cannot now restart smoothly as restrictions lift, moving through the gears from first to fifth. There will be a risk of chugging along in third gear for quite some time. When Government supports wind down, there will be a wave of businesses going into liquidation. This economic cost has disappeared a bit from the debate, but it is real.
For now there is pressure on the Government to at least outline a plan for the next few months. It looks unlikely to do so next Tuesday, fearing that it would have to tear up its plans in a week or two.
But there are things we should be told. Somewhere in the Department of Health and the Vaccine Task Force are details of plans for when different groups of the population will be vaccinated. Now that supply is becoming more predictable, this information should be made public. The habitual tactic of the Irish government and bureaucratic system not to release information can sometimes be taken to extraordinary lengths.
It also seems reasonable to outline how the key vaccination milestones might translate into reopening various parts of the economy and society in the months ahead. We need to see the guts of a plan – and by now we know the caveats. As vaccination numbers increase, shops should be able to reopen quickly enough, If the vaccine programme is on track, then hotels and hospitality should be able to open for summer.
No foreign travel We may not like all the answers. There seems little point for now in offering any guidance on international holiday travel beyond saying “not for now”.
And the future of larger gatherings such as weddings and concerts remains uncertain.
A few key decision points, beyond next week, lie ahead. As the vaccine rolls out, the risks start to fall. The question is how quickly. One key point will be in late May when most of the vulnerable will be vaccinated. Death rates should be falling, though cases may still be high. How far to go then?
The Danes are planning to use vaccine passports for access to indoor premises – but what about the younger staff who will not be vaccinated yet ?
The next key point will be about a month later. If Ireland has succeeded in vaccinating 80 per cent plus of the adult population at least once by then, a wider reopening should surely be on. If the vaccine programme falls well behind, then the summer holiday season will be in doubt. The margins are tight.
The Government needs to sell a programme of hope for the months ahead, but tempered by the reality that even after everyone is vaccinated, some restrictions on our behaviour will continue. It also needs to actively plan for tools to help reopening, such as more widely available antigen testing. In the meantime, one of the longest lockdowns internationally will continue, with some minor modifications. Don’t hold your breath for next Tuesday. But hold out some hope for the end of May.