Positive signals from the Government and the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) this week about further reopening have raised hopes for autumn. The extraordinary progress of the vaccine campaign and the high levels of take-up are vital – in the first place to protect health but also to clear the way for a bounce in the economy and the public finances.
We are still looking through a fog at what lies ahead. I was struck this week by two visits to small businesses. One shop had a sign asking customers to wait for staff to come and serve them at the door, apologising for any inconvenience in this “interim period”. And a restaurant owner I spoke to wasn’t starting indoor dining for a few days because he wanted to get all the processes right. “After all, this is probably the way it is going to be in the future,” he added.
What will be interim and what will be permanent is a big question. The idea of a UK-style “freedom day”, where we suddenly throw away our masks and “get back to normal” is fanciful. But vaccination can pave the way to a wider reopening over autumn. And this raises a few big questions about how this will happen.
If the vaccine wall does hold and case numbers remain contained, then we will see an economic bounce in Ireland
Why is officialdom getting more upbeat? Look at Scotland, which has been ahead of Ireland on the vaccination – and reopening – trail. Daily cases in Scotland, which has a similar population size to Ireland, peaked at more than 4,000 in early July, but are now in the range of 1,100-1,400 a day, similar to here. Hospitalisation and serious illness are still following cases, but at a lower level.
While Ireland was lagging Scotland on vaccinations, we have now more or less caught up, with more than seven out of 10 over-18s fully vaccinated in both countries and heading towards six out of 10 of the entire population. Both look well set to be at the higher end of the international average of numbers vaccinated. The surge in cases in parts of Northern Ireland, however, and the uncertainty about what happens across the UK, show how delicate and uncertain all this is.
If the vaccine wall does hold and case numbers remain contained, then we will see an economic bounce in Ireland. But it will also kick off some really big debates about how we can – and should – live in future.
The first will be the back-to-work debate. Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan were out this week talking up the start of the "return to work" in September. But a big row is coming about what this will look like.
'No jab, no job' may run counter to GDPR rules, or even constitutional rights, but the debate here will grow and will, I believe, be led by employees rather than managers
The head of one large company said that if his staff could sit in and have a pint or a meal on a Friday night, then there was no reason why they couldn’t show up to work on Monday morning. But people’s lives have changed and many won’t want to go back to long daily commutes. The so-called “hybrid model” proposed by many – a few days in the office each week and a few days out – is a bit of a halfway house and will only work for some. Does it not make more sense for people to come in to work when they need to?
The public service is as unclear as everyone else on this, with a vague plan to get people back to the office in some form between September and next March if conditions allow. Much hangs on this for our city centres – and not only for the commercial property sector.
The second big debate will be the obvious one – what controls should remain. People have to produce proof of vaccination to dine indoors, or travel, but not – it seems – to go to work (unless you work in healthcare), despite the fact that some big US multinationals are mandating this internationally. “No jab, no job” may run counter to GDPR rules, or even constitutional rights, but the debate here will grow and will, I believe, be led by employees rather than managers. Everyone will want to work in a safe environment. Perhaps it will be solved, to some extent, by most office workplaces not returning until most staff are vaccinated. But the Taoiseach’s intervention this week that you won’t need a vaccination to return to work may not be the end of this.
A lot of the budgetary room for manoeuvre is already used up – borrowing more means betting on interest rates staying very low
Other controls such as masks and some form of distancing will surely remain for quite some time. A new drive is needed on workplace ventilation – another agenda employees will push. Meanwhile, the future of travel – particularly long-haul – and what controls stay in place remain uncertain, despite the bullish talk from airlines.
The third row will be about money. A bounce in the economy will boost the public finances. The target of a deficit of just over €20 billion this year will probably be undershot. This will suggest there is money to spend – even more than the significant increases already indicated. And there will be pressure to support sectors such as hospitality, the arts, aviation and travel.
But there are some storm clouds on the horizon – significant spending pressures, uncertainty about corporation tax revenue and the longer-term cost of ageing and the green agenda. A lot of the budgetary room for manoeuvre is already used up – borrowing more means betting on interest rates staying very low. And if the economy is already firing, the Government needs to be careful not to overheat the healthier sectors, while still supporting those worst hit.
The likelihood of an economic bounce and the recovery of many jobs will provide a much better backdrop. The challenge then becomes opening sustainably and shaping what happens next to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.