Bill Clinton formally announced his candidacy for the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination in October 1991, about three and a half months before the Iowa caucuses beginning the primary season. His wife has done so a full year before the caucus, reflecting the marathon-like contest for 2008 for which already 17 candidates have declared on both sides. And she starts, unlike her partner, a favourite for both the nomination and the presidency itself.
Frontrunners will always warn against the complacency that handsome poll leads can bring, and history has shown all too often how they can evaporate like snow on a spring day. But Ms Clinton does start out well, a Washington Post-ABC poll finds, with a 24 percentage point lead over her closest Democratic rival, Barack Obama. And it finds that she leads both current Republican frontrunners, senator John McCain and former New York mayor, Rudy Giuliani, albeit marginally.
Ms Clinton has told friends that she is more worried about winning the Democratic nomination than winning a general election against a Republican, a reflection of her standing as the most centrist, even conservative, of the Democratic candidates. Indeed, although still a deeply polarising figure nationally, the poll shows that she is breaking down some of that hostility. She is particularly popular among younger women between 18 and 34, who see her as a role model and may not remember the attacks on her when first lady. But, most crucially, the survey showed a substantial shift among women 55 and older, 59 per cent of whom have a favourable view of her, compared with 48 per cent last year. (Nine million more women than men voted in the last presidential election).
Among Democrats, however, Ms Clinton probably faces serious problems on the Iraq war. After a recent trip to Baghdad she sought to distance herself from the administration by criticising the competence of the Bush war but has yet to condemn the war itself or talk of withdrawal other than in the medium to long term. Despite the unpopularity of the stance among Democrats, with an eye on the main contest, she will be wary of the charge from the right of giving comfort to the enemy. Hence her emphasis at the first public meeting of the campaign on healthcare and children, altogether safer ground.
Her candidacy will excite particular interest in Ireland not only because she is well known, but because she has taken particular interest in Irish affairs. And, although senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden will also stake a claim to the Irish-American vote, the Clinton machine will take some beating.