The political calculation involved in yesterday's assassination of Lebanese industry minister Pierre Gemayel shows once again how much that country is a cockpit of Middle Eastern politics.
Many see the hand of Syria at work, since he has opposed its influence in Lebanon and last week voted in favour of a UN inquiry into the assassination of opposition leader Rafiq Hariri. But Syria denies involvement with some plausibility, because it will be discredited internationally by the outrage just as it is being drawn into regional efforts to contain the violence in Iraq.
Yesterday, Syria restored relations with Iraq after a gap of over 20 years, and both states are to attend a meeting with Iran this weekend. International reaction to Gemayel's death yesterday clearly reflected these various currents of attitude and interest. It will not be as easy for policy realists in the United States, Britain and the EU to advocate engagement with Syria and Iran if this assassination can be pinned on either state or their supporters.
Within Lebanon there are many who might have a motive for the murder. The cabinet has been hanging on to power with great difficulty after six pro-Syrian ministers resigned last week over plans for the UN tribunal. While this was an excuse for their departure, its underlying cause had to do more with the fallout from the highly destructive Israel-Lebanon war last summer. The Hizbullah party gained great kudos from its resistance to Israeli attack. It has sought to see it expressed in a rebalanced national unity government. Mr Gemayel's party refused to concede that. Choosing him as a target is a sinister warning to the remaining cabinet ministers that they too are vulnerable, since the government would fall if two more of them resign or die.
The Lebanese prime minister, Fouad Siniora, insists he will not drop plans to set up the tribunal and that the cabinet will resist efforts to destabilise the country or tip it into civil war. That can certainly be avoided and there were signs yesterday that political leaders and the armed forces were determined not to allow this to happen. Hizbullah indicated it will call off popular demonstrations to increase pressure for political change. But if further destabilising is to be avoided it may make sense to create a national unity government to see the country through this dangerous period. And it would be a mistake to use this crime as a political excuse to refuse engaging Syria and Iran in regional peace-making or in efforts to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, as President Bush appeared to do in his reaction yesterday.