During the Scottish independence referendum one of the most successful arguments against independence, one that certainly rattled more than a few voters, was about what would follow a Yes decision. Specifically about the uncertainty over an independent Scotland’s membership of the EU and the fate of the pound.
At issue were both the unknowable legal position and a reality that any decision on the shape of post-independence relationships was a matter that would not be determined by the Scots themselves, but be the outcome of a complex, probably fraught, three-way negotiation between them, the EU and what remained of the UK.
That reality and argument are mirrored today in the Brexit debate. Ironically, often the most ardent former proponents of the unionist argument are now evading the same embarrassing questions about what comes next, what happens to trade, free movement, or the Border at Newry, in the event of Brexit. Because the answer is the same: they cannot know. And the glib, repeated insistence that “all we want is to trade freely with the EU” betrays a wilful refusal to acknowledge that there is no such thing as a free lunch.
Access to the EU market, including the Irish market, will not be a free ride and would have to be negotiated with what remains of the EU. The contention by DUP MP Sammy Wilson that Brexit "would release £18 billion [in EU contributions] every year for expenditure on public services" is delusional. No less, the dream that it could replace lost EU Northern Ireland funding .
When Taoiseach Enda Kenny meets Prime Minister David Cameron in London today to discuss the latter's renegotiation of the terms of UK membership, that issue of post-Brexit uncertainty will certainly be a subtext in their discussion. A willingness to go much of the distance to meeting British concerns and to campaign in the Irish community against Brexit is directly related to it.
Central to Irish worries is the fact that whatever in our bilateral relationship is pulled apart will not be restorable just between the two of us, however willing. Ireland would become the EU’s external border for trade and free movement of people purposes; its responsibility, to protect that border, and any special provision, however desirable or historically justifiable, will only be possible with the consent of fellow member states.
An attempt to answer the question “What after Brexit?” will also be made by the Commons Northern Ireland Committee. It is likely to paint a picture of a worryingly damaging scenario for the North, and, perforce, leave unanswered the critical question of whether it can be mitigated.
Meanwhile the latest polls have been showing a slim majority emerging in favour of Brexit, while in Scotland, with its substantial majority against breaking away from the EU, a majority for independence should England lead the way out.