It’s all about the general election. A legislative programme announced by the Government when the Dáil resumed after the Christmas recess was substantial and worthy, but the real political meat was contained in a series of commitments made by Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton involving the creation of jobs, lower personal taxation and other feelgood measures.
The Government is in danger of repeating the mistakes made when the Troika left by promising too much and delivering too little. When politicians talk about full employment and “giving back” to the people, the electorate envisages an early return to the frothy excesses of the Celtic Tiger. That will not happen. The harsh reality is that Government spending exceeds its available income and levels of public debt are so great that living standards will remain depressed. A healthy dose of realism, rather than recourse to traditional vote-buying, would be refreshing.
The economy is at the heart of the Government’s re-election strategy. An additional 40,000 jobs have been promised this year and full employment is scheduled for 2018. These are extremely ambitious targets. They will be underpinned by credit guarantee legislation, collective bargaining arrangements and back-to-work legislation that favours women and families. In addition, planning regulations will be reformed and provision made for the establishment of technological universities.
Rather than rely solely on an October Budget to lift their fortunes, the Coalition parties have opted for a sustained good news campaign. Within weeks, details of a ten-year tourism strategy will be unveiled involving 50,000 jobs and an additional income of €5billion. That is likely to be followed by details of capital investment in hospitals and schools before a more comprehensive package including a five-year tax reform plan, concentrating on middle income earners, is unveiled in April.
In the following month, a referendum to allow same sex marriage will be held. A proposal to reduce the age limit for Presidential candidates from 35 to 21 years of age will also be put to the people. Other recommendations from the Constitutional Convention, to cut the voting age from 18 to 16; to abolish the offence of blasphemy and to allow expatriates vote in Presidential elections have been deferred.
Economic growth and its impact on Government finances will decide the shape of Michael Noonan's Budget as he responds to demands from Fine Gael backbenchers for cuts in income tax. In a parallel move, Brendan Howlin has offered to reopen public sector pay talks and to wind down emergency finance measures. Given the glaring shortfalls in public services, it is all too much, too soon.