President Yahya Jammeh’s mandate has expired. Gambia’s president, whether he likes it or not, whether he stays on or not, is now in the eyes of his country’s neighbours and the world community, illegitimate, an ex-president. His government has also all but collapsed from defections and firings.
On Thursday challenger and election winner Adama Barrow was sworn in at a ceremony in the Gambian embassy in Senegal instead of the planned Banjul inauguration, because of Jammeh's refusal to surrender power. The latter has now also declared a state of emergency. Fearful of what will happen, some 26,000 Gambians have fled and tourists are being evacuated from Africa's smallest country, many to neighbouring Senegal whose troops are massed on the border waiting on Barrow's invitation to invade. Their authority/legitimacy comes from regional bloc ECOWAS which has pledged to uphold democracy in Gambia, and Nigeria has accordingly also pre-positioned war planes, helicopters and naval vessels to assist.
With the small Gambian army still loyal to Jammeh, there is, however, a danger that invasion may spark fighting. International intervention in Ivory Coast in 2010, sanctioned by the UN after a similar refusal by an incumbent to accept an election result, saw months of turmoil and up to 3,000 deaths as militias wrestled for control.
Jammeh, who initially promised to accept the election result, took power in a 1994 coup and vowed to rule for “a billion years”. He did so for 22 years with increasing repression – among other things he threatened to slit the throats of homosexuals. Opponents have wound up dead and many left the country. Unemployment has soared. In Banjul in recent days there have been opposition arrests and radio stations closed down while its people have retreated to their homes and stockpiled supplies.
Diplomatic pressure has so far been to no avail. Last night the UN security council was asked to endorse a resolution by Senegal giving its blessing to military intervention.