The sharp rise, steep fall and subsequent growth in the numbers at work is one measure of the depth of the post Celtic Tiger financial crisis and the rapid pace of Ireland’s economic recovery. Employment, which peaked in late 2007 and only stopped falling in early 2012, has since rebounded strongly.
The latest Quarterly National Household Survey – the official measure of employment – estimates that 1.98 million people were at work in the final quarter of last year; a 2.3 per cent rate of annual increase and a seven-year high in the employment total. Nevertheless, the number with jobs is still some 170,000 below the 2007 peak.
One concern, however, is that the rapid rate of employment growth has slowed in past quarters. That said, Ireland remains highly placed in the international jobs growth table.
Whether that recent deceleration reflects some nervousness among business decision takers, wary of political instability in the aftermath of the general election, is unclear.
Certainly business lobby Ibec has made it clear that its members were increasingly worried about such a negative scenario unfolding; and fearful that post-election uncertainty could undermine international confidence in Ireland’s economic revival and have a negative impact on borrowing costs and job creation.
The figures indicate a broad-based recovery as the numbers at work have increased in almost all of the 14 economic sectors. A further concern, however, is the high number of long-term unemployed (102,100), who account for more than half of total unemployment. And the State’s youth unemployment rate (18.9 per cent) remains high, at twice the national jobless rate.
Overall unemployment, which has fallen steadily for the past three and a half years, is now in line with the European Union average. And the latest employment data figures offer grounds for encouragement that progress made can be sustained. But they leave no room for complacency, not least if the electoral outcome on Friday makes government formation harder to achieve.