Neither Government ministers nor party leaders can take much consolation from the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll. Public satisfaction with the Government has declined marginally to 29 per cent since July – with some two thirds of respondents now dissatisfied. Likewise the four main party leaders in the Dáil have all lost support. None yet enjoys a positive poll rating – far more people remain dissatisfied than satisfied with their performances.
For Fianna Fáil, the poll result is a particular disappointment. In July the party seemed set for a breakthrough, securing 33 per cent support – a nine percentage point rise on its general election vote. But a decline now of seven points to 26 per cent, is matched by a smaller drop – to 39 per cent – in the satisfaction rating of party leader Micheál Martin.
Nevertheless, the party remains in a strong position. It attracts the same level of support as Fine Gael – and Mr Martin is the most popular party leader. Since the general election, it would seem, the party has been helped by the effective veto power on aspects of policy that it exercises over the minority Fine Gael administration.
When asked if the “new politics involving Independents taking cabinet seats in the Fine Gael-led minority government underpinned by Fianna Fáil in opposition is good or bad for the country”, more (44 per cent) viewed the matter favourably than unfavourably (36 per cent).
Nevertheless, increasing evidence of a lack of political cohesion in government is clearly straining the loyalty of Fine Gael supporters. They remain split on the merits of co-habiting with Independents in government, while relying on qualified support from Fianna Fáil in opposition.
The poll was conducted on October 3rd and 4th, against the background of a deteriorating economic and political environment. Forecasts for both global and domestic growth were revised down. And following speeches by British Prime Minister Theresa May at the Conservative Party conference, much greater political uncertainty now surrounds the longer term implications of a potential "hard" Brexit for Ireland.
Fine Gael at 26 per cent shows a small rise since July, helped by a sharp fall in Fianna Fáil support in Dublin – down from 24 per cent to 14 per cent. Taoiseach Enda Kenny, despite a decline in overall satisfaction, records a 72 per cent satisfaction rating among Fine Gael supporters – a higher figure than Mr Martin secures among Fianna Fáil supporters.
Sinn Féin – at 19 per cent – continues to show an improvement on its poor general election vote – 14 per cent – as do Independents and other small parties. However, Labour, at five per cent – unchanged since July – struggles to adjust to its new opposition role.
Overall, the poll result ensures an uneasy political stability for now as, on these figures, no party is likely to precipitate a general election.