It has been another tumultuous week in Irish politics with the shock resignation of a Cabinet minister, the production of an uninspiring budget and the publication of a tribunal report making findings of shameful behaviour by some senior gardaí.
The departure of Denis Naughten as minister for communications means the Government's hold on power is even more precarious. Naughten has made it clear he feels wronged by the way Taoiseach Leo Varadkar forced him from office and he will only support the Government in future on a case-by-case basis. Although Naughten does not have a leg to stand on, his vote could determine the end of the 32nd Dáil.
Naughten's departure follows the resignation of Fine Gael TD Peter Fitzpatrick over abortion, which had already led to some doubts about the Government's ability to survive. From now on, the Fine Gael-led minority administration can only depend on the support of 54 TDs in the 158-member Dáil and that is not enough for it to be confident of winning critical votes even when Fianna Fáil abstains.
A renewal of the agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is by no means certain and will certainly take some time to agree. Another event this week, the publication of the Charleton report, added to the tensions between the two parties. The report exonerated former tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald and compounded the sense of grievance in Fine Gael about the way she was forced from office last November.
Minister for Health Simon Harris illustrated this in an attack on Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin for what he described as "disgraceful conduct" in the lead-up to her resignation. The Minister's views reflect a strong feeling in Fine Gael that a recurrence of the Fitzgerald episode is inevitable the next time a Minister comes under sustained attack from the Opposition.
Martin responded to the growing political instability prompted by Naughten's resignation by writing to Varadkar proposing they both commit not to collapse the Government until the Brexit settlement has been reached. He asked Varadkar to agree that no election should be held until the final Brexit deal is passed by both the European Parliament and House of Commons, saying an election during this critical time would create dangerous instability during a period when the Brexit deal could be derailed by the constantly-changing situation in Westminster.
It is a reversal of all political norms to have the leader of the Opposition calling for the Government not to have an election but that is indicative of the strange times in which we live. The Taoiseach responded by repeating his proposal that the next election be held in the summer of 2020. The manoeuvring for position will continue until polling day, whenever that comes.