Worldwide some 3.3 million Covid-19 cases have been confirmed, with more than 233,000 deaths linked to the pandemic. But the distribution is very uneven: low-income and lower-middle income countries account for almost half of the global population but make up only 2 per cent of the global death toll.
Underestimating the iceberg-like dangers in the developing world, however, would be catastrophic. Reinfection in a world without real borders remains the most critical danger we all face as we move towards ending lockdowns.
While there is a lag in the pandemic’s progress in the developing world, the picture is distorted by testing weaknesses. One estimate in a Brookings Institution paper puts the real share of infections in low-income states up to 39 times higher.
Weak health systems and economies make for particular vulnerability. Ten African countries have no ventilators at all. And in the entire continent, there are just 20,000 critical care beds. Health budgets average a paltry $12 a year per head compared to Ireland’s €4,706.
The vast majority in sub-Saharan Africa, a fifth of whom already suffer malnutrition, are employed in the informal sector and receive no unemployment, sickness or other benefits. Economists estimate more than a third of all jobs and incomes in Africa could be lost as a result of Covid-19.
Most developing economies are commodity-dependent and have seen prices fall by a fifth this year. Many rely on remittances, projected to decline by double digits, or tourism, which has almost collapsed.
Over 90 developing countries have already applied to access the IMF’s emergency credit facilities and the G20 has agreed to a moratorium on debt service payments owed by the poorest. But that is far from enough.
UN secretary general António Guterres last week warned that a further 500 million people could fall into poverty as a result of the pandemic, lamenting a "lack of sufficient solidarity" with the developing world. UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock acknowledges that the peak of the pandemic is not expected to hit the world's poorest countries for three to six months but points to evidence of incomes already plummeting, jobs disappearing, food supplies falling and prices soaring.
He argues that a €85 billion package could provide income support, food and a health response to the pandemic for 700 million of the world’s most vulnerable. That, he says, represents just one per cent of the €7 trillion stimulus package the 20 richest countries have put in place to safeguard the global economy.
It is a moral imperative that world leaders must take up – and one that should be championed by Ireland in the closing stages of its campaign for a seat on the UN security council.