Fine Gael and Labour aim to stand on their record in government, and to seek re-election as a coalition offering stability and continuity of policy. Taoiseach Enda Kenny, at his party's national conference in February, defined it thus. Voters at the general election, he said, would have "a clear choice between stable and coherent government or chaos and instability". At leadership level both Fine Gael and Labour accept that a vote transfer pact is the best way to enhance their electoral prospects in their bid to retain power. Labour will discuss this proposed voting pact at a parliamentary party meeting, and Fine Gael will also consult its TDs on the issue.
Neither party favours a joint policy programme, as each wants to retain its distinct political identity, and to broaden its appeal to voters. A flexible policy stance gives Fine Gael and Labour some scope to differ, and to do so without jeopardising the prospects for renewing the coalition later, by either one making non-negotiable demands. Labour, as Brendan Howlin, Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform has said, would favour holding a referendum to repeal the eighth amendment that provides for the equal right to life of the mother and the unborn. Fine Gael' s attitude on the issue, however, would be less definitive.
For both coalition partners the harsh political reality is that they greatly depend on each other: they need to hang together, rather than separately. In the general election a key issue for debate will be who can form a government. It is also one that a united coalition is best placed to address. However, a Fine Gael claim to do so would- without Labour support - lack credibility; while Labour - without the benefit of Fine Gael’s lower-preference vote transfers - would risk losing seats that a voting pact may help save. Labour is unlikely to win support from other left-wing parties.
The biggest challenge facing both coalition parties in the run-up to an election is how to sell their greatest achievement in government - management of the economy - to a sceptical electorate. The key economic indicators are impressive. Ireland’s growth rate continues to outpace that of other EU member states; unemployment has fallen sharply to 9.5 per cent of GDP, and the public finances continue to improve - with a budget deficit below 2 per cent of GDP forecast for 2015. So why does the Government fail - as the poll ratings show - to secure greater public approval for an economic recovery far stronger than almost anyone had predicted? For many people the impact and cost of recession was immediate and traumatic, while the benefit of economic recovery has yet to be experienced, and appreciated. The scars of recession and austerity will remain, but the Coalition can only hope these wounds will quickly heal and transform voter psychology by the time the general election is called.