Saturday's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran's compliance with its July agreement to decommission its nuclear weapons programme may yet mark an historic turning point in the politics of the region. Not only does the lifting of sanctions give Iran's impoverished economy and people a chance to flourish again through access to world markets, but the removal of the country's pariah status can provide a new regional dynamic capable of making an important contribution to a range of seemingly intractable conflicts from Syria to Yemen.
Whether it will or not depends on whether Hassan Rouhani, Iran's "reformer" president, is willing and able to continue delivering on the promise that so many still see in him. But gradual acceptance by its neighbours of a new regional influence for Iran will also require it to significantly redefine its role in Syria and Lebanon.
The IAEA reported that Iran had shipped 98 per cent of its fuel to Russia, dismantled 12,000 centrifuges so they could not enrich uranium, and poured cement into the core of a nuclear reactor at Arak which was capable of producing about two weapons' worth of plutonium per year.
Iran’s return to the world oil markets – yesterday it boosted production by 500,000 barrels a day on top of the approximately 1.2 million barrels now being produced daily – should yield up to $30 million a day in revenues at current prices (although Iran’s return may actually reduce prices, which are down 70 per cent in the last 18 months). It will also see the freeing up of more than $100 billion in frozen assets. A measure of the potential of its new liquidity comes in reports that Iran has already struck a deal with the French Airbus company for the purchase of 114 new planes, estimated to be worth more than $10 billion. European and Asian governments and companies are queuing up to do business with Tehran. US businesses may have to wait awhile as pre-nuclear programme sanctions remain in place.
The shift in regional tectonics is reflected in both Saudi and Israeli discontent at the sanctions relief, a sign that the old reliable ally in Washington is being unfaithful. But uncritical political and military support by the US for the Saudis and Israel has been a key contributor to regional instability. In diplomatically endorsing intransigence and a refusal to negotiate or compromise, the US has left desparing Palestinians and others prey to the propaganda of extremists. A rebalancing of the regional power relationships, with a new emphasis on pragmatic diplomacy, may lay the basis of a new, badly needed regional unity of purpose on which peace can be forged; even, as Farhang Jahanpour of Oxford University argues, the possibility of agreement between the Saudis and Iran, other Gulf states, and Sunni powers Egypt and Turkey on a new regional security structure. The lifting of sanctions is an important first step.