Rome’s European allies and the financial markets have been nervously watching Italy’s referendum campaign as if they were about to see a reprise of the dreaded Brexit/ Trump experiences. There has been much comparison and apocalyptic talk of the consequences of a No vote – the euro threatened, banks collapsing, the EU unravelling, the onward march of populism unchecked . . . perhaps too much such talk.
The poll next Sunday sees an attempt by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to reform the sclerotic Italian political system – it has seen 63 governments in the past 70 years – by significantly strengthening the ability of a prime minister to govern through the elimination of Italy's two-chamber system, a drastic cut in the number of parliamentarians (now 945), two-thirds of whom would be nominated rather than elected, and more central authority over regional affairs. A new electoral law would also give a party winning a plurality in parliament the extra seats it needs for a majority.
His purpose – to ease legislation and pass badly needed, unpopular structural reform – will not be achieved by this means, says one predecessor, Mario Monti. And, critics warn, it will undermine Italy's democracy. "A swing from democracy to oligarchy," is how one former senior judge sees the prospect, while none other than former PM Silvio Berlusconi warned that Italy could suffer an "authoritarian drift". And he would know.
Part of the drama associated with the poll has arisen because the international narrative sees Renzi’s crusade as worthy and vital, and because of his linking of his own fate to that of the poll. Although he has backtracked, withdrawing his promise to resign if defeated, much discussion on the poll still focuses on his fate and the presumed instability that would follow from his departure.
The opposition is strikingly similar to the anti-politics waves that backed Brexit. It is again the marginalised, those disillusioned with politics, those feeling left behind, led by a motley crew of parties comprising Bepe Grillo's Five Star Movement, the federalist Northern League, and Berlusconi's Forza Italia – although the latter is scarcely "anti-establishment", the reprobate, a model for Donald Trump.
Before they stopped polling last week – polls are barred in the two weeks before a vote – opinion was leaning marginally towards a No vote. The last few days of campaigning will be vital.
Defeat for Renzi's imperfect measures will be seen as a big setback to badly-needed reform. But Monti's appeal for a sense of proportion and an understanding that a "No" will not be the end of the world is important. As he insisted to Financial Times readers in the best pot-half-full tradition: "Financial markets need not get excited. After all, Italy is the only southern European country to have emerged from the crisis in the euro zone without external assistance." Most reassuring!