The success of Taliban forces in taking control of six provincial Afghan cities over the weekend is likely to mark a tipping point in the country's post-US- withdrawal agony. Among others insurgents took control of the vital commercial centre of Kunduz. Fighters have now entered Mazar-i-Sharif, the most populous city in the north while in the south the Taliban have also laid siege to Kandahar and Herat, Afghanistan's second and third largest cities. Kabul faces constant attacks from rockets and mortars and assassinations of government officials.
The question increasingly is not if, but when the Taliban will prevail.
The city of Aibak fell undefended to the Taliban on Monday afternoon after a local leader defected with 300 of his troops, an all-too-common occurrence exposing the fragility of the government's reliance on warlords and militia leaders to prop up the weak Afghan army. Despite 20 years and tens of billions of dollars the US and Nato have never succeeded in building up forces capable of safeguarding the country.
Civilian casualties have skyrocketed. Nearly 2,400 civilians have been killed or injured between May 1st and June 30th
Since the US. withdrawal began, the Taliban have captured more than half of Afghanistan’s 400-odd districts and provincial capitals are now often the last islands of government presence in provinces flush with Taliban fighters, sheltering hundreds of thousands of terrified Afghans displaced by fighting.
Civilian casualties have skyrocketed. Nearly 2,400 civilians have been killed or injured between May 1st and June 30th, according to a United Nations report and the toll is escalating with fighting moving into the cities where civilians are trapped between the insurgents and government forces. And Human Rights Watch says Taliban forces are summarily executing detained soldiers, police and civilians suspected of ties to the Afghan government. In areas under Taliban control, girls are banned from school once more.
Faint hopes persist that international mediation may be possible, but there are no obvious respected impartial candidates
At the diplomatic level, the Security Council has looked on impotently as peace talks, held in Doha, Qatar, have failed to make any serious headway. The latest assault on urban centres, notionally protected under the terms of a 2020 agreement made in Doha between the Taliban and the Trump administration that paved the way for the US withdrawal, has undermined the Biden administration's hopes for a political settlement between the Taliban and Afghan leaders in Kabul. Talks between president Ashraf Ghani's government and the Islamists have stalled. Faint hopes persist that international mediation may be possible, but there are no obvious respected impartial candidates. And why would the Taliban, so close to success, want to deal?
Meanwhile the UN’s humanitarian appeal to support the basic needs of Afghans - nearly half of whom urgently need material assistance - remains woefully underfunded.