The complexity of the Brexit challenge for our politicians, diplomats and policymakers should not be underestimated. It has been described as the most important external threat to the State since its foundation – the mechanics and implications of our EEC accession, pegged to the coattails of the UK, pale into insignificance.
The opportunities and dangers, need to be weighed, sector by sector; the interests of this State and of the Six Counties, to be reconciled; of our people, and our diaspora. And, not insignificantly, there must be a calculation and weighing of the interests of the EU as a whole; our union.
The detailed assessment of those challenges and the outreach have already been started, directed by a unit in the Department of the Taoiseach. The case can be made that it needs to be strengthened – the Government should consider drafting in such experienced European public servants as Irish former Commission secretaries general, David O'Sullivan and Catherine Day.
Like the "strands" of the Northern Ireland peace process, each of the bilateral relationships in which this State is implicated has to be carefully managed separately: North-South, Belfast-Dublin; East-West, London-Dublin; and Dublin-Brussels, a complex of relationships in which every Irish embassy in the EU will be engaged. Diplomats will also be letting every capital in the world know that this state remains a committed EU member, open for business, no better place to invest to trade in this market of 500 million.
We have a particular interest in the specific shape of any future EU-UK relationship. The Border, ties of trade, the movement of people, whether daily commutes or migration, and, not least, the stability of the peace process, all argue for an settlement based on the European Economic Area, the "Norway option" – a continuation of current trade and labour freedoms, though without a UK seat at the EU table.
It is a formula as close to “no-change” as conceivable, which would allow the continuation of our current soft border arrangements with the North and the UK. But, as every day in the Tory leadership race passes, the rivals appear to rule out increasingly firmly any willingness to accept any form of free movement of labour. It is an argument that, nevertheless, we should be making directly to them, helping to craft a UK position.
Our diplomats will represent our interests – the idea that in talks we would speak for the North, or indeed for the UK, like the idea of an all-Ireland forum to do so, was always a non-runner, a piece of political kite-flying that Taoiseach Enda Kenny knew well would be shot down by Arlene Foster.
But a more nuanced demonstration to the North and London that our approach and perspective on a seamless transition, our interests, best dovetail with their interests is another matter, and will be key to any successful diplomatic strategy.