US President Joe Biden warned President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would result in heavy economic penalties and lead Nato to reposition its troops in Europe, measures he said would go well beyond the response to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. The escalation of the rhetoric and engagement by Western and Russian leaders in this war of words over the issue reflects new and alarming levels of Cold War-like tension.
The continuing build-up of more than 70,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian-Russian border has led to fears in Kiev and internationally that Russia intends to push over the border in the spring. Moscow denies this fervently, insisting that it is the West that is destabilising the region by bringing Kiev increasingly into the Nato/EU ambit.
A Ukrainian advance could be argued by Moscow to be sufficient to justify a Russian incursion
Biden prepared the ground for their meeting by talking on Monday with the German, French, Italian and British leaders, warning Putin of a solid united front. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also told EU ambassadors the union would take “additional restrictive measures” beyond economic sanctions in case of an invasion.
Potential counter-measures are reported to include curbs on access to capital markets, restrictions on converting roubles to make selling Russian oil exports much more difficult, and additional targeting of Russian oligarchs’ assets. The US also hopes sanctions would include its long-held aspiration – the blocking of Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline which is built but not yet pumping gas.
The US and Nato are not prepared to threaten the use of force but Russia would pay a heavy price for an invasion. That, however, may not be its real purpose. Russian support for separatists in the Donbass region and the military stalemate on its border, and deterrence of any Ukrainian push to reimpose its writ there, are as likely to be its rationale. A Ukrainian advance could be argued by Moscow to be sufficient to justify a Russian incursion. In its absence a deterrent troop concentration remains.