Europe is again at the epicentre of the pandemic. Fourth and fifth waves of coronavirus infection, like that in Ireland, are putting huge pressures on health services and staffs and prompting new moves to lock down. Although the continent appears better able to live with the pandemic than a year ago – admissions to hospital and deaths generally remain much lower, and the EU now has vaccines, new medicines, and more bed and ventilator capacity – an apparent waning of the vaccine effect combined with greater levels of social mixing have put countries under severe strain.
Rates of vaccination range from 88 per cent in Portugal to 24 per cent in Bulgaria. Ireland is fifth on 76 per cent. But the Netherlands, France and Germany, where vaccine coverage is only a few percentage points off the best, have, like Ireland, begun experiencing a surge in infections.
The Netherlands, which has vaccinated 73 per cent of its population, entered a three-week partial lockdown on Saturday. Austria is set to impose curbs on the movement of the unvaccinated while Germany is considering similar measures on a regional basis and is cancelling large events. From mid-December in France over-65s and at-risk groups who have not had a third shot will no longer be entitled to a Covid pass, and boosters will be given to over-50s.
According to the World Health Organisation, coronavirus infections across the continent rose by 7 per cent and deaths by 10 per cent over last week, making it the only region where cases and deaths are steadily increasing. Nearly two-thirds of new infections – about 1.9 million – were in Europe. The prolonged crisis is also taking its toll on the retention of exhausted and demoralised staff. According to the Standing Committee of European Doctors, "extreme working conditions" are driving doctors out of the profession. And the European Federation of Nurses estimates that just under a third of nurses working before the pandemic have since left their jobs. In June, Danish nurses went on strike for nearly 10 weeks to demand better pay before being ordered back to work by government decree. This follows similar strikes in France, Belgium and elsewhere.
The challenge for EU governments is largely the same and highly complex, requiring mobilising of new material and technical resources and technology, and psychological in terms of managing communications as people lose their sense of urgency. The most likely causes of the current EU wave are a combination of low vaccine uptake, waning immunity among people inoculated early, and growing complacency about masks and distancing after governments relaxed curbs over the summer. Some of the earliest and simplest messages remain the most important. The WHO estimates 95 per cent universal mask use in Europe could save almost 200,000 lives.