The Covid-19 pandemic is not in its final stages – the disease is still rampant across the world and the emergence of new, more virulent or vaccine-resistant variants could quickly send recent progress into reverse – but in Ireland a successful vaccination programme has created some space for the further reopening of social and economic life.
Assuming vaccines continue to keep people out of hospital and continuing progress in the immunisation campaign leads to an imminent peak in cases, it will become unsustainable for the Government to resist easing remaining restrictions, including on concerts and other cultural events. Under proposals expected to go to Cabinet next week, limits on public transport passenger numbers and on attendance at indoor events are to be relaxed in a staggered process over the autumn. With schools and colleges due to reopen and people expected to begin returning to offices, daily life across the country will soon begin to take on the familiar rhythms of pre-pandemic times.
That’s a relief, but it also carries risks. After almost 18 months of collective stress and private pain, people yearn to feel that the nightmare is finally over. The gradual decoupling of the relationship between infections and hospitalisations has created a reasonable public demand for further reopening and the Government will respond to that demand as long as its public health advice allows. But it must do this while highlighting the dangers that remain, and taking care to ensure that this is not a return to business-as-usual.
The rapid spread of the Delta variant has proven that Covid-19 is not going anywhere. It is likely to become an endemic disease requiring constant vigilance and the indefinite retention of many of the public health practices that have now become familiar. Face masks, hand-sanitisation stations and common-sense social distancing will be a feature of daily life for a long time. Contact tracing will continue to be required for new cases, individual business closures may well persist and the State’s large testing infrastructure will have to be put on a permanent footing. In the health service itself, pressure from recurring Covid spikes will be added to the everyday stresses hospitals already experience, and the need for periodic vaccine boosters for the whole population could require costly ongoing investment in product procurement and logistics. Over the long term, the importance of good ventilation in limiting the spread of airborne disease will force changes in how urban spaces are designed and adapted.
The remarkable efficacy of the vaccines and the success of the national rollout campaign mean that, for now at least, the presence of Covid is no longer incompatible with day-to-day social and economic activity. But this progress is still fragile. The surest way of jeopardising it is to assume that life can now simply return to the way it was.