The disclosure that Fine Gael Ministers have begun a campaign to woo potential future coalition partners is a sign of things to come as the two big parties jockey for position and advantage in advance of the next election. It seems they have learned a lesson from the aftermath of the last election in February 2016, which showed that the negotiations about the formation of government can be every bit as important – and as challenging and torturous – as the election result itself.
In a Dáil where no party comes anywhere near to winning a majority, relations with potential partners can be the decisive element in determining who forms a government. With an election likely sometime later this year – once clarity about Brexit has emerged – there is some anxiety in Fine Gael that Fianna Fáil has already stolen a march in terms of building alliances for a future coalition with the Labour Party, the Greens and Social Democrats.
There is a natural tendency for Opposition parties to find common cause during the years spent jointly attacking the government of the day. This can bring them closer together and pave the way for agreement among parties who may have serious differences on a number of issues but are united in their antipathy to whoever happens to hold the reins of power.
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has stated his preference to lead a left of centre coalition after the next election. Labour leader Brendan Howlin has fuelled speculation that this is in prospect by saying that Fianna Fáil's policy platform is more in tune with what Labour wants to achieve in government than that of Fine Gael.
It is difficult to see either Varadkar or Martin changing their position on coalition with Sinn Féin
Labour’s ambition is to align with smaller parties on the left like the Social Democrats and the Greens to form a single negotiating bloc after the next election. One important question is whether Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael will have enough seats to make a coalition with a left leaning bloc a viable option. Both of the big parties will have to do far better than they did in 2016 if such an arrangement is to become feasible and a lot will depend on whether one of them has significantly more seats than the other.
Another crucial factor will be the performance of Sinn Féin, which could have enough seats to form a government with either of the big parties. Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin have adamantly ruled out going into coalition with Sinn Féin despite the overtures of Mary Lou McDonald, who has signalled a willingness to enter government as the junior partner.
It is difficult to see either Varadkar or Martin changing their position on coalition with Sinn Féin, which means that the competition between the two big parties to win friends among the smaller parties and Independents will intensify in the coming months.