The Government cannot be accused of lacking ambition in its revised National Development Programme. Inevitably, there will be debate about where money is being spent but, in overall terms, the amount being allocated up to 2030 has increased significantly to a total of €165 billion, the bulk of it coming from the exchequer. A big jump in the allocation to housing is the most notable change in terms of cash, while in terms of direction reducing carbon emissions is now a major focus.
Spending at this level, equivalent each year to around 5 per cent of Ireland’s annual economic output, has the potential to achieve much, not only via its direct impact on employment and activity, but also by boosting productivity and achieving wider economic and social goals. To achieve this, the right projects must be chosen and delivered efficiently – and the wider economic backdrop needs to ensure affordability.
The current low level of interest rates has helped hugely during the pandemic and now gives a window of opportunity to fund investment. It is unclear how long this window will last – a reasonable expectation is that funding costs for the exchequer will start to edge higher over the next year or so, but remain low. Beyond that, who knows?
While listing many of the projects, the document makes clear that larger elements in particular will face a series of hurdles before they get the go-ahead. Whether these assessments can be driven by figures, rather than politics, remains open to question. Including realistic “prices” for the environmental impact – work on how to develop this assessment continues – will be a key driver here. The spread of projects included in the document suggests that, as of now, politics remains well in play.
Delivery, of course, is vital. Although many big projects have been built effectively over the years – notably many roads projects – there are too many examples of projects running over time and over budget. Plans to amend planning processes and introduce new control and monitoring structures are welcome, as is an acknowledgement of limited expertise in some arms of the State in terms of delivery. Now it will come down first to the political drive and direction behind the process and then to key institutions doing their job.
The Government is correct not to put notional timetables on projects. But this does not absolve it of the responsibility to add much greater focus to the delivery of this plan than has been seen with some recent high-profile projects. The Covid-19 vaccine programme showed the State can deliver. Some of the same resolve and organisation evident in that achievement is needed with key areas of the investment plan, especially in tackling the housing crisis and making swift progress on the green agenda.